Autumn cruise, ready to go after a mucky job.

It is not looking good for next weekend but perhaps early next week?  But I am beginning to think it won't happen at all with only one very short window currently showing over the next 10 days 😡

ECMWF and GFS for Friday 5th Sept. 

Of course the forecasts are not to be relied on that far out but the long term forecast for the 9th - 23rd is not that good:

Low pressure patterns are expected to dominate at the start of this period, bringing changeable weather conditions with showers or some longer spells of rain [and wind]. Conditions may begin to turn more settled and drier later in the period, particularly in the south. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly above average.

I suspect a quick dash to the Isles of Scilly and Cornwall is the best I can look forward too, probably with a good deal of time spent sheltering from bad weather before the boat is lifted in October and a third season on the trot restricted due to family emergencies. At least the delayed start might avoid another complication:

The lock out of the marina is again faulty so I can only get out during free flow, not a show stopper but  inconvenient - on the Sunday 31st free flow is 21:47 - 23:47 which with with an hour and a half to Dale anchorage that does not give me much, if any, sleep before a 03:00 start so if the Lock is not fixed I would have to go down on Saturday and get out on Sunday morning, weather permitting. Update: fixed quickly this time.

To be a bit more positive, after a trip to the boat over the last couple of days it is now ready for the off, when the time comes I just need to load fresh food + valuables and I'll be off.

Also one disgusting job is out of the way - cleaning the bilge which was very overdue; and was last winter as well, but then my back problems meant it didn't get done. With the hot weather the stink of bilge was not pleasant until the boat had a good airing. After about 6 hours uncomfortable work it was done and now I just have to make the 5 mile trip go to the waste disposal centre to get rid of the cleaning materials and the oil, grease, etc. that came out.

All of the water & grease from the stern gland goes through the aft
section together with the odd spill of oil and diesel, but cleaning was
easy and it got a coat of paint to fill / cover up a few small cracks.

The main bilge was a different kettle of fish and needed a lot of
work helped by some automotive degreaser.

The paint on the lower keel bolts is in great shape, the ones above
the sump have a few places that will need touching up this winter
but they are not as bad as they look in the picture, most of the rust
coloured stains are just that but I'll treat them properly when the boat
is out of the water and completely dry - the aft one could easily get
 wet from stern gland drips that tend to pool then suddenly come
 forward as the boat moves.

Click here for the off.

Planning a south bound passage from Milford round Lands End

This is an example of my planning to round Lands End south bound to be read in conjunction with my page on Passage making up the west coast.

E & OE, see Reeds, other Almanacks or an appropriate pilot and work it out for yourself!

Background.

Rewritten a week, hopefully, before my Autumn cruise in 2025, it will probably need changing as the likely weather window is small but I need to do some work on the boat between now and leaving and so this is the last opportunity to do it before going to the boat, if the weather window changes or the wind is lighter than forecast I'll have to recalculate, but a day plus or minus is a trivial job. Also I have nothing to do today.

I would prefer to go via St Ives or the Scillies and still might if the forecast changes, but at present neither would be practical with NW winds backing SW, but both are easier to plan than this route so I can easily change if the opportunity arises, even on the way across - it would not be the first time. The good news is that 15 knots of north westerly wind would make for a very quick passage under sail.

Todays ECMWF forecast for 12:00 on Saturday 30th. I'm sure it
will change, hopefully for the better before and after to give me
some flexibility.

Tides.

Lands End with a track of a previous passage
north bound. A bit closer in south bound would
be good to get the early turning  south going
tide. Also the inshore route past The Longships.
 The Longships Fl(2) white clears The Brisons.

For the bulk of the trip across the Celtic Sea my SeaPro navigation software can be relied upon to give reasonable timings and a Course to Steer until past the N cardinal buoy marking the "Wave Hub" NE of the Off Land's End TSS, after that there are too few tidal diamonds to accurately cover the critical portion around Lands End, CTS is unlikely to be an issue as that can be eyeballed or the autopilot can take me to a way point but timing is an issue so the text and small chart-lets in Reeds or the RCCPF pilot need to be consulted.

Very close in to Cape Cornwall and "The Brisons" the tide sets south at HW Dover + 2 hours but is not slack or running south further off shore for another c 5 hours.

At The Runnel Stone, off Gwennap Head just south of Lands End, the east going tide runs until HWD -1 and it is 9 miles from The Runnel Stone to Newlyn and 19 to south of The Lizard. 

Ideally therefore if heading for Newlyn you need to plan to be at the Runnel Stone no later than about HW Dover +5 hours for a fair tide or there will be a brisk one on the nose.

The Calculations.

Redone as the weather does not look good for the 30th, the best day would be Monday, although that is very marginal at the moment

HW Dover 

Monday 1st September 2025 05:00 and 18:00, 1 day before neaps.
Tuesday 2nd September 2025 07:00 and 19:40

So the optimum time to be close inshore off Cape Cornwall on Saturday would be 18:00 + 2 = 20:00 but more realistically if its a bit blowy some time between  20:00 and 23:30.

Times UTC

Turning to SeaPro with a plan for Milford to the Fal, leaving Thorn Rock buoy earlier than I would like at 04:00L making 5.25 knots, a reasonable cruise speed motor sailing and understated reaching in a good breeze (although I normall plan at 4.5 knots), I would be at the Brisons by 22:45 local with c 8 miles to run to the Runnel Stone with a following tide, so I would be there about 01:15 on Tuesday vs a target latest time of HWD +5 = 01:00L when heading for Newlyn.

I would then have the option of anchoring off Mousehole or Newlyn around 03:15 for some sleep before heading further east or, particulalry if bad weather looked likely, continuing on to round The Lizard. I probably would not carry the tide round so would be fighting it for an hour or two to get into Church or Parn Voose Coves for a few hours some sleep or I could soldier on until the tided turns east at about 09:30 then head up to the Fal estuary for St Mawes or The Truro River or further east to Portmellon, Polkerris or Fowey.  With the current forecast of strong or very strong winds setting in on Wednesday / Thursday the Truro River or Fowey are favourites.

Replanning - again.

Typical; less than 2 hours after recalculating for the new start date we find my wife needs transport to Hospital on Friday and again next week due to complications after her new knee. Normally I'd wait before recalculating, especially as 2 out of 3 forecasts are showing strong winds in a weeks time but I want to know if it will be practical to leave straight after her hospital appointment, if she is OK, and more particulalry what happens if the lock gate is not fixed and I am restricted to leaving during free flow. Also I have nothing better to do. 

This time I am leaving the previous calculations in case I am delayed until the 15th when the numbers above would again be good - and that is probably the last date I would bother going sailing.

The first part is easy, free flow on Thursday the 4th is from 02:22 to 04:22 & 14:47 to 16:47. If the hospital appointment runs to time I might just be able to get the 11:42 train arriving Milford at 17:31, allowing only one shopping trip for supplies I should be able to get to bed by 09:30 to leave at 04:00 direct from the marina. I'll do the calculations for that but more realistically I would go down on Wednesday, move to Dale on Thursday and leave early Friday. If the numbers work......

 Date   ¦   HW Dover    ¦  1st HW  ¦  LW   ¦    HW

        ¦               ¦ Plymouth ¦  Fal  ¦  Padstow

Thu 4th ¦ 09:30 & 21:50 ¦

Fri 5th ¦ 10:10 & 22:40 ¦  04:50   ¦ 10:40 ¦ 16:50 6.6m

Sat 6th ¦ 11:00 & 23:20 ¦  05:40   ¦ 11:30 ¦ 17:30 7.0m

Sun 7th ¦ 11:30 & 00:00 ¦  06:20   ¦ 12:20 ¦ 18:10 7.4m

Mon 8th ¦ 12:10         ¦  07:00   ¦ 13:00 ¦ 18:50 7.7m

Tue 9th ¦ 00:30 & 12:30 ¦  07:40   ¦ 13:40 ¦ 19:30 7.8m

An added complication with the current forecast is that at some point the wind might turn light and possibly to the SW or cyclonic in which case The Scillies, Padstow (arrival close to HW and in daylight is possible at 5 knots on any day) or St Ives come into play but I'll ignore that and get the navigation software to do the numbers at two speeds, it is at times like these where automation makes some scenario planning practical. 

• Leaving on the Thursday the 5th during free flow addition time is required to get the 4 miles from the marina to Thorn Rock. 
• Tuesday the 9th is a spring tide, especially close to that, timing around Land's End (and The Lizard) and the weather becomes even more important, especially in a north westerly that would be wind against an adverse tide approaching The Brisons.
• The tide turns adverse off The Lizard at HW Plymouth + 3 hours
• I copy the tables shown here and other relevant data to my calendar so they are available on all my devices when I don't have a data connection and some I print out. It is not really necessary but it saves looking up the data on route or writing it all up in the log - which I subsequently probably would not be able to read due to my hand writing. It is also incontrovertible proof that I have complied with SOLAS requirements 😏 

Update: The lock gate was quickly fixed so Thursday was replanned locking out at the first exit time 2 hours after free flow and at a reduced average speed of 5.0 knots so as not to be early at the Brisons.

Day     Knts ¦ Leave ¦  Brisons     ¦ Runnel¦   Lizard 

                     ¦ (Earliest)   ¦ Stone ¦(Tide adverse)

Thu 4th 5.00 ¦ 05:50 ¦ 00:13(23:50) ¦ 01:00 ¦ 04:23(07:50)

        4.25 ¦ 04:00 ¦ 02:04(23:50) ¦ 03:00 ¦ 07:00(07:50) 

Fri 5th 5.25 ¦ 07:00 ¦ 00:27(00:40) ¦ 03:19 ¦ 06:33(08:40)

        4.25 ¦ 03:00 ¦ 02:04(00:40) ¦ 04:18 ¦ 08:11(08:40)

Sat 6th 5.25 ¦ 07:00 ¦ 01:19(01:20) ¦ 03:18 ¦ 06:37(09:20)

        4.25 ¦ 03:00 ¦ 01:57(01:20) ¦ 04:29 ¦ 08:16(09:20)

Sun 7th 5.25 ¦ 08:00 ¦ 02:20(02:00) ¦ 04:22 ¦ 07:35(10:00)

        4.25 ¦ 03:30 ¦ 02:21(02:00) ¦ 05:02 ¦ 08:46(10:00)

Mon 8th 5.25 ¦ 08:30 ¦ 02:42(02:30) ¦ 04:50 ¦ 08:02(10:40)

        4.25 ¦ 03:45 ¦ 02:40(02:30) ¦ 05:32 ¦ 09:16(10:40)

Clearly times are indicative and I would leave rather earlier if estimating 5.25 knots and would probably leave a little later than 03:00 and make up some time under engine if necessary to carry the tide round the Lizard. A little late at the Brisons would be more comfortable especially in a brisk wind when it would be best to stay further offshore where it could get rough with an adverse tide.

Autumn cruise.

The earliest date I had pencilled in to start my next cruise was August 28th, if this forecast is correct that is not going to happen, nor I suspect the more likely departure date I had in mind of the 30th.

ECMWF forecast for the 28th August. The remains of Hurricane
Erin. Earlier runs had shown it heading for Greenland. Large and
slow moving, if this pans out it could easily mean there will be no
window long enough for any more sailing this year 😡😡😡😡

Update Wednesday a.m. Now this is better, although the GFS is completely different and the UKMO somewhere in between on the 26th (as far as it goes):

ECMWF for the 28th.

GFS and ECMWF for the 29th.

Update Wednesday p.m.

There is a good analysis on the Met Office "Deep Dive" just published (on Wednesday) that also explains why the projection has changed in the last couple of days and is likely to keep changing (as it has done again on Thursday morning). Unfortunately the change may also predict the end of summer.

Ready to go