Next Week???

Models are suddenly starting to look better with winds in the right direction but light and some models vary on temperature from cold to chilly overnight.

From Predictwind (The UK model is not shown this far out).

PredictWind have two proprietary physical models and one AI model in Beta:

• PGW - Uses the Australian CCAM model with the same start conditions as the GFS.
• PWE - As PGW but using the ECMWF initial conditions.
• PWAi - An AI model combing the ECMWF Hi-res, ECMWF  AI (AIFS) and others.

Surprisingly good agreement between the ECMWF and GFS
for the 21st but a big change from yesterdays.

AI forecasting has been in development for some time, as I understand it from research last year most are developments from the traditional "analogue" method that looks for weather patterns in the past that mirror recent history and projects from there, the "manual" analogue method has generally been used for medium and long term forecasting.

The ECMWF AI model shows the favourable but light winds
lasting for over a week, this for Thursday 26th March. Calm
seas😊, temps with overcast skys look reasonable for the time
 of year at 40 - 50F 😊, but probably a lot of motoring 😒.

Time will tell, and I am sure the forecasts will change daily, probably significantly until early next week.

From the Met Offices 10 day trend on Wednesday 11th before
the latest model runs. https://youtu.be/CGs2tZE6EoI 

Thursday 19th is looking particularly good at the moment but
loading the boat on Tuesday would be a pain if the forecast for Rain
and wind are correct.

The ECMWF AI model agrees.

Friday 13th

Looking good for Thursday! Brisker winds but perfectly sailable,
especially on a nice reach.

With that much east in the wind it looks like the start will be from Sandy Haven Bay rather than Dale. Then a quick sail on a reach across St Georges Channel. It will be an early start, with an easterly almost the last thing I want is wind against a near spring tide past The Smalls, another good reason to move out of Milford on Wednesday, free flow does not start until 04:22 and there will be a strong adverse tide until St Anne's head. Fingers crossed.

Friday evening

Good agreement between the 6 models for 6 days out and air
temps could reach 60F on Wednesday and Thursday.

Decision time is Sunday to load the car, 2 days to deliver and load cloths, stores etc. an early train to Milford on Wednesday to leave for the anchorage during free flow around 17:00 that evening. 

Saturday morning

PredictWind's PGW coming into line, The GFS, as is not uncommon
a bit adrift from the others, especially on gusts but not at this stage a worry.
if the ECMWF is correct it looks like the cruising chute will be needed.

All looking good, it is rare to see 10 models so consistent this far out, and it is not just the wind speed, the synoptic charts also agree over a wide area. The Met Éireann, forecast for the next month and the extended predictions for April through June are both encouraging.

UKMO global model and the ECMWF. The rest of the models except
the PWE are in close agreement.

 I better start packing!

Sunday

Still looking good 😊

A big advantage of computerised navigation programs that take account of tides is that it is easy to do some planning in advance. As mentioned in my piece on passage making up the west coast there are few useful tidal diamonds from Milford to The Smalls so I have a way point on the NE corner of the "Off Smalls" TSS and have the software do some calculations with different start times and speeds, in a few minutes I build up this table for the Course to Steer to the Coningbeg buoy (see chart below); much easier at home than bobbing around in a choppy sea with shipping bearing down on you as they exit or enter the TSS.

A day before an extreme spring tides.

With a south going quartering tide from about 11:00 the CTS is not that sensitive to speed through the water, the start time has more impact but only by about 10 degrees over a 2 hour spread and with the tide even that could be corrected fairly late without going far out of my way. 283 degrees is likely to be on the money. With the autohelm on a compass course I'll average close to that, if I decide to use the wind vane steering or the autohelm set to wind direction I would be lucky to be within 5 or 10 degrees so I may need to replan around midday and in both cases I'll need to keep an eye on the cross track error, the Taskar TSS will be good for that as well as a potential obstacle to be avoided.

The likely track from the TSS passing there at 07:00 making 4.5 knots.
I'll need to watch out for the Tuskar TSS.

2026 A bit more planning for Ireland.

e & oe! Not having anything better to do and with tide information now available for the SeaPro navigation software (it is not available till late December which must be a real pain for those sailing in warmer climes) and the Imray Tide App now working correctly, I thought I would spend a little more time planning for the first few days of my planned trip to the west coast of Ireland. Writing it down also helps me understand the options.  The initial planning was back in September, the thread starting here.

The spring tide of the 21st, a likely start date from the Dale anchorage, is a couple of days after the new moon that rises at 06:20 so the nights are going to be very dark, by the neap tide of the 27th, it will be waxing gibbous (just more than half) setting at 04:22 at Waterford, much better - IF it is a clear night. So, there must be a good chance of arriving in daylight or at a location I am happy to arrive at in the dark.

Sunset along the eastern coast of Ireland on the 21st will be around 18:45Z improving to 20:20Z on the 11th April. Summer times starts on the 29th of March which would help at the expense of a darker morning, not normally an issue for a departure. Add 30 minutes to these times for civil twilight.

Sunrise on the 28th at Waterford is 06:12Z and on April 11th, 05:40Z, subtract c 30 minutes for civil twilight.

Anchorages I have used in red, marinas in blue. Anchorages
I have reviewed as usable (at least in daylight) in green. The
marina I have used at Kinsale is hidden by other marks including
the marina at the yacht club. Other marinas in purple.

Of the anchorages I know along the coast south of Carnsore point there are several that I would be happy to enter and anchor in the dark, from east to west:

• St Margaret's Bay (North of Carnsore Point).
• Dunmore East (Waterford). 
• After that Youghal has a well lit entrance but the anchorage is between shifting banks and the "safer" area has moorings that might not be visible at night, but it would be OK for an early morning arrival if heading further west or if I needed a bolt hole or somewhere to rest after a slow passage.
• Kinsale to anchor below the bridge, or in extreme conditions to moor in one of the two marinas, I would need to average better than 5.3 knots to reach there before daylight, possible but unlikely unless a very good wind and probably a bumpy ride.
• After that the next is Baltimore a long way away.

Of the places I haven't been to the following should work in the dark:

• The east side of Waterford Harbour.
• Probably the Dungarven Helvick Head and Ballycotten Bay anchorages if the wind is southerly  but both are exposed to the east and north.
• Cork / Crosshaven.

The anchorage at Dunmore East looking out into Waterford harbour.

The main Kinsale anchorage from Castlepark marina, shore lights
should show the few mooring buoys so not a problem in the dark.

The first thing to do is check my default destination which is Waterford Harbour. On March 21st with an 04:00Z start from Dale routing north of The Smalls at 4.5 knots, SeaPro shows an arrival time of 19:30Z but, especially on a Spring tide with 4 knots of tide or more helping north past Skolholm, this is pessimistic due to the lack of tidal diamonds from Milford until past The Smalls, see my notes on passage making from Milford. (Timings for routes south of The Smalls are likely to be more realistic). Kilmore would be a little quicker so certainly an option if I am running to time.

St Margret's Bay or Rosslare would be options if a changing wind made Waterford difficult but the passage from there to Waterford is 6 to 9 hours, effectively a whole day, so is to be avoided if possible.

Cork routing south of the Smalls would be an overnight sail arriving at 07:30Z (an hour earlier if leaving on the 27th when it is a neap tide) and if the weather is particularly good or in a stiff northerly wind that could make Waterford uncomfortable (Kilmore would be OK if there is no lingering sea), I might well opt for that or Kinsale a little further on but I have been there before and would like to see Cork harbour.

Going direct to Baltimore would, at 4.5 knots, take 7 hours longer than Cork, a possibility if the weather was good, particulalry if it was about to change, but a long haul to start with and again I would be missing out on Cork.

If it is likely to be warm for the time of year with a favourable wind, Cork looks good, the decision would ideally be made the night before departure so as to start later at around 07:30Z from Dale @ HW Milford for more favourable tides and more sleep, or between 05:30Z and 07:15Z from the Marina during free flow. 

On the 22nd or 23rd the tides are not helpful from Waterford to Cork and it would be 13 or 14 hours or, more likely, a couple of days to avoid two long days with early starts in succession. Things start to improve from the 24th, half way towards neaps and with the tides later so a delayed start from Milford or a visit to Waterford would help there, but if it is not particulalry cold overnight I think I would prefer the longer trip direct to Cork, have a day or twos there then move on.

From Cork it would be a 12 hour run to Baltimore or a couple of days probably via Glandore, with the tides not being such a factor. 

Start Times

Especially at Springs when passing north of The Smalls it is critical to have a fair tide from SW of Skokholm to NE of Grassholm. It turns North 02:30 Hrs before HW Milford and S at HWM +04:00. Going North towards Wiklow or Dublin you need to be as early in the tide as possible to get past The Bishops, going North West to Waterford it is less critical although keeping clear of the TSS can be an issue on the ebb. It is about 9 NM from Dale so at least a  couple of hours against the flood, less with the Ebb. So, ignoring tides off the Irish coast departure from Dale needs to be from 04:30 Hrs before HWM to HWM 01:00 after, preferably earlier rather than later.

From Milford Marina it is an extra 4NM against the tide after locking through so at least an hour and a half plus time to lock through. Lock times outbound are a constraint with exits only possible on the flood at 05:30, 04:30 and 03:30 before HW and during free flow for about 2 hours before HW. With an early morning start it will be better to lock out the previous day and anchor for the night at Dale, Sandy Haven Bay or West Angle Bay depending on the wind and sea state.

Conclusions:

If the wind is:

• Westerly I wait for a better wind, preferably at home. 
• c 325 → N → c 220 degrees direct to Cork and Kinsale are possibilities.
• South-westerly, promising  to change withing a day or two I could head for Waterford or Kilmore and then as below.
• With winds from the North through east to south, one of:
• A fairly long day to Waterford Harbour or Kilmore then anything from 2 to 5 days to Baltimore which is what I allowed for in my first draft plan. Likely stops:
• Dungarvin, Whiting Bay or Yougal.
• Cork (E Passage lagoon or Spike Island or Crosshaven or Drakes Pool).
• Coutmacsherry or of many options between there and Glandore.
• Baltimore.
• An overnight trip to Cork, a day or twos rest then one or two more days, then as above.
• A very long overnight trip direct with a couple of nights at anchor to recover.

Sod's law says the wind will be WNW or some other marginal direction but time will tell. 

Rounding the Fastnet during the JBC in 2019.
No whales then either 😞

In the event of storm force winds good shelter could be found at Waterford, Cork, Kinsale, Baltimore or possibly Youghal, with quite a few others for "merely" strong or gale force offshore winds.

Unfortunately is will be too early in the season to make a whale watching trip to Cape Clear, the Fastnet Rock or Mizzen Head worth while so after Baltimore I am thinking of using the interesting north channel out of the harbour to head for Bearhaven, where I have a better chance of some serious resupply and diesel than Baltimore,  probably via Skull / Long Island or Crookhaven. 

The northern route out of Baltimore.

If the weather is bad but with offshore winds there are a good number of other places to visit on route.

Baltimore - Bearhaven at 5 knots, Crookhaven is
only c 3 hours

Tides are not a major problem for these relatively short legs but are particularly favourable from the 29th or 30th March for several days at least as far as Valentia with morning departures giving fair tides and plenty of time to complete legs in daylight.

After Bantry Bay there are few tidal diamonds and frequently none on a leg until Malin head and I don't intend to work those legs out manually from the pilot and tide tables until I get there.

Click here for the last of the planning.

Planning for Ireland 2026. Part 2 Baltimore to Lough Foyle & beyond

Lots of potential places to visit depending on the weather.
A few potential routes shown (from planning some years ago, to
be reviewed).

Note: The Google links on this page were automatically generated by Google using a Beta test option in Blogger, they open in a new window.

It took well over a day but I now have a good selection of anchorages where, in the right conditions, I would be happy to stop over night. 139 of them (now 155) from Carnsore clockwise to Portrush, plus those on the east coast and the ones I have already used between Carnsore and Baltimore. Now as I sail round I don't have to plough through the pilot when at sea or at anchor, a glance at this chart on my iPads, phone or PC, then if there is more than one a more detailed review of the likely candidates.

Updated November 2025

I originally planned this as a route to St Kilda for 2022 but decided to prioritise going direct and later to Shetland, that took more years than expected to achieve. Hopefully in 2026 I can take a more leisurely approach, the original plan was intended as a passage rather than a cruise but it is a good starting point and so far I have just added days to allow for diversions on route although the mileages shown are direct. 

                                  NM  Days

To Baltimore                 220   7

Baltimore - Bantry Bay     36   3

Bantry - Ballycrovane         33   2

Ballycrovane - Valentia       33   2

Valentia - Dingle /Smerwick   24   2

Smerwick -Fenit               30   2 

Fenit - Carrigahold           27   2

Carrigahold -Doonbeg          33   1

Doonbeg - Inishmore           26   2

Inishmore - Clifden           42   2

Clifden - Inishbofin           9   1

Inishbofin - Blacksod         35   1

Blacksod - Broad Haven        31   1

Broad Haven - Kilcummin       33   1

Kilcummin - Teelin            30   3

Teelin - Inishkeel            29   1

Inishkeel - Arranmore         18   2

Arranmore - Sheep Haven       32   1

Sheep Haven - Lough Swilly    21   2

Lough Swilly - Culdaff Bay    21   1

Culdaff Bay - Islay           41   1

               Total direct  795  40

The distances don't account for stop offs / diversions from the direct routes so it will likely be over 1,000 NM and with weather delays probably 7 - 9 weeks. 

After Islay I plan to head to the Western Isles, particularly Barra Sound that I bypassed in 2023 and the Shiant Islands I missed this year when I had to head home from Stornoway. 

If the weather is good, a very BIG IF given my experiance of the area in May and June over the last 5 years, a trip through  The Sound of Barra  to the Monach Islands and another visit to St Kilda with time to go ashore and look at the smaller islands and stacks would be nice.

Update November.

The ICC Sailing Directions (15th Ed, 2020) highlight a lack of places to get fuel, partly due to the EU ruling on coloured diesel in pleasure boats, according to Reeds things seemed to have improved since then, from that I have compiled a list of places I might refuel and restore, several require short range porterage or use of the dinghy (there are more): Crosshaven Royal Cork YC, Kinsale, Castletownbear or Lawrence Cove, Bere Island Valentia Cahersiveen, Dingle Marina, Fenit, Mullaghmore, Sligo, Killybegs (no diesel?), Portrush.

The Sound of Barra is interesting and in the right weather
attractive. And Barra probably has the only airport with the
runway on the beach and scheduled flights. An objective for
the trip is some pics of an aircraft (often a Twin Otter, aka a
Twotter), taking off or landing.

A bit more for the first couple of days here.

Planning for Ireland 2026. Part 1 Milford to Baltimore.

Tides are generally not helpful when heading south west along the Irish coast - a spring tide is good to get a push west from Milford Haven starting around 05:00 but south from Carnsore Point the favourable tide would not then start until lunchtime. Streams are charted as weaker than further north but they get stronger round head lands and as many learn every other year during the Jester Baltamore Challenge, beating to the Fastnet Rock or Baltimore against the tide is not to be recommended. 

Starting on a neap tide means leaving Milford at lunchtime and arriving in Ireland in the small hours, not a major problem is some anchorages but could be in others, especially with lots of pot buoys around as I found during my trip around the Celtic Sea in 2022.

My preference would be a start close to springs, leaving Dale before dawn to hopefully arrive somewhere to get some sleep that night, but the weather will be the deciding factor. Southwesterlies would be a pain and I might well wait for better weather, north-westerlies would be ideal and easterlies would be good for a quick passage but would limit the number of available anchorages. 

10 year average winds during March at Clear Island
at the extreme south of Ireland.

10 year average winds during April at Clear Island.

Statistically the end of March or April should bring plenty of opportunities as it has in the majority of the last few years, strong N - NW winds have been a problem to me rounding Land's End and could make for poor conditions in St Georges Channel but once in Ireland a reasonably brisk north westerly should not be a problem as far as Baltimore.

St Margate's Bay, Carnsore Point is the closest anchorage to Milford but a beat in a west or north west wind and then I would have to go round or inside of the Coningbeg rocks to move further west. A destination further west is likely better, somewhere between Kilmore and Waterford (46 NM), Youghal (pronounced Yawl) is just over 100 NM so a overnight trip and an extra 20 miles would get me to Crosshaven and 30 to Kinsale.

There are a good number of places to stop in offshore winds, somewhat fewer in easterlies. Baltimore will be the first target, preferably via new anchorages, but a visit into Crosshaven or even up to Waterford would not be unwelcome.

Places to stop between Carnsore Point and Cork. Green Anchorages
not previously visited, Red anchorages visited, Purple Marinas not
visited, Blue manias visited.

Places to stop, Oyster Haven to Baltimore.

I'll think about likely start dates when Imray have sorted out their "Tides" app which is currently showing all tides as spring tides, or I get the 2026 Reeds. Unfortunately Euronav in the past have not issued the tide data for the new year until late December which is a pain and must be difficult for those those on long voyages or in the southern hemisphere during their high season.

Update: the 3rd of  April is a spring tide so if the weather serves a start somewhere around then, earlier rather than later, looks good, around the 21st March or the 19th April would also work. There is a bit more on the first couple of days later in the thread.

Click here for Baltimore to Lough Foyle.

And he is off (Hopefully)

Tuesday 2nd September 

After 2 months ashore for the Memsahibs new knee, the weather looked, until late Sunday, as if it would be a while before I could go sailing, then a small window opened up. This morning it has opened a bit more and providing that tomorrows last appointment with the consultant surgeon goes well, and I can catch the train, AND its not too late getting to Milford, I should be off  well before first sparrow chirp on Thursday. If I don't make it I'll have to rethink as going south into the forecast head winds would not be much fun.

I'm not sure were I will be headed but as described in a previous post, the tide is good close in to Cape Cornwall from 01:00 on Friday to take me past The Lizard. But I am not convinced that the weather and sea will be good enough, also there may be some strong winds with south in them over the weekend and early next week. So, for the moment, the target is Rick Stein Ville aka Padstow and I'll make a decision on Land's End, or perhaps Lundy, when I am past Turbot Bank and hopefully have the latest forecasts and models.

With a very quick passage I might just scrape into the harbour on Thursday evening but more realistically I'll anchor in Port Quin Bay or Polventon Bay and go into Padstow on Friday (HW 04:31 & 16:51), or perhaps on Saturday if I decide to go for a local sail or have a day at anchor.

ECMWF & UKMO models for 04:00 Thursday as of Tuesday 03:00.
The ECMWF shows NW winds from c 07:00 reaching c 15 knots by
lunch time.

And for 17:00. A nice reach but it could get rather wet and bumpy
with swell & waves left over from earlier strong winds.

I'll want to be somewhere safe on Tuesday (and on Sunday).

Click here for Day 1 of the cruise.

Planning a south bound passage from Milford round Lands End

This is an example of my planning to round Lands End south bound to be read in conjunction with my page on Passage making up the west coast.

E & OE, see Reeds, other Almanacks or an appropriate pilot and work it out for yourself!

Background.

Rewritten a week, hopefully, before my Autumn cruise in 2025, it will probably need changing as the likely weather window is small but I need to do some work on the boat between now and leaving and so this is the last opportunity to do it before going to the boat, if the weather window changes or the wind is lighter than forecast I'll have to recalculate, but a day plus or minus is a trivial job. Also I have nothing to do today.

I would prefer to go via St Ives or the Scillies and still might if the forecast changes, but at present neither would be practical with NW winds backing SW, but both are easier to plan than this route so I can easily change if the opportunity arises, even on the way across - it would not be the first time. The good news is that 15 knots of north westerly wind would make for a very quick passage under sail.

Todays ECMWF forecast for 12:00 on Saturday 30th. I'm sure it
will change, hopefully for the better before and after to give me
some flexibility.

Tides.

Lands End with a track of a previous passage
north bound. A bit closer in south bound would
be good to get the early turning  south going
tide. Also the inshore route past The Longships.
 The Longships Fl(2) white clears The Brisons.

For the bulk of the trip across the Celtic Sea my SeaPro navigation software can be relied upon to give reasonable timings and a Course to Steer until past the N cardinal buoy marking the "Wave Hub" NE of the Off Land's End TSS, after that there are too few tidal diamonds to accurately cover the critical portion around Lands End, CTS is unlikely to be an issue as that can be eyeballed or the autopilot can take me to a way point but timing is an issue so the text and small chart-lets in Reeds or the RCCPF pilot need to be consulted.

Very close in to Cape Cornwall and "The Brisons" the tide sets south at HW Dover + 2 hours but is not slack or running south further off shore for another c 5 hours.

At The Runnel Stone, off Gwennap Head just south of Lands End, the east going tide runs until HWD -1 and it is 9 miles from The Runnel Stone to Newlyn and 19 to south of The Lizard. 

Ideally therefore if heading for Newlyn you need to plan to be at the Runnel Stone no later than about HW Dover +5 hours for a fair tide or there will be a brisk one on the nose.

The Calculations.

Redone as the weather does not look good for the 30th, the best day would be Monday, although that is very marginal at the moment

HW Dover 

Monday 1st September 2025 05:00 and 18:00, 1 day before neaps.
Tuesday 2nd September 2025 07:00 and 19:40

So the optimum time to be close inshore off Cape Cornwall on Saturday would be 18:00 + 2 = 20:00 but more realistically if its a bit blowy some time between  20:00 and 23:30.

Times UTC

Turning to SeaPro with a plan for Milford to the Fal, leaving Thorn Rock buoy earlier than I would like at 04:00L making 5.25 knots, a reasonable cruise speed motor sailing and understated reaching in a good breeze (although I normall plan at 4.5 knots), I would be at the Brisons by 22:45 local with c 8 miles to run to the Runnel Stone with a following tide, so I would be there about 01:15 on Tuesday vs a target latest time of HWD +5 = 01:00L when heading for Newlyn.

I would then have the option of anchoring off Mousehole or Newlyn around 03:15 for some sleep before heading further east or, particulalry if bad weather looked likely, continuing on to round The Lizard. I probably would not carry the tide round so would be fighting it for an hour or two to get into Church or Parn Voose Coves for a few hours some sleep or I could soldier on until the tided turns east at about 09:30 then head up to the Fal estuary for St Mawes or The Truro River or further east to Portmellon, Polkerris or Fowey.  With the current forecast of strong or very strong winds setting in on Wednesday / Thursday the Truro River or Fowey are favourites.

Replanning - again.

Typical; less than 2 hours after recalculating for the new start date we find my wife needs transport to Hospital on Friday and again next week due to complications after her new knee. Normally I'd wait before recalculating, especially as 2 out of 3 forecasts are showing strong winds in a weeks time but I want to know if it will be practical to leave straight after her hospital appointment, if she is OK, and more particulalry what happens if the lock gate is not fixed and I am restricted to leaving during free flow. Also I have nothing better to do. 

This time I am leaving the previous calculations in case I am delayed until the 15th when the numbers above would again be good - and that is probably the last date I would bother going sailing.

The first part is easy, free flow on Thursday the 4th is from 02:22 to 04:22 & 14:47 to 16:47. If the hospital appointment runs to time I might just be able to get the 11:42 train arriving Milford at 17:31, allowing only one shopping trip for supplies I should be able to get to bed by 09:30 to leave at 04:00 direct from the marina. I'll do the calculations for that but more realistically I would go down on Wednesday, move to Dale on Thursday and leave early Friday. If the numbers work......

 Date   ¦   HW Dover    ¦  1st HW  ¦  LW   ¦    HW

        ¦               ¦ Plymouth ¦  Fal  ¦  Padstow

Thu 4th ¦ 09:30 & 21:50 ¦

Fri 5th ¦ 10:10 & 22:40 ¦  04:50   ¦ 10:40 ¦ 16:50 6.6m

Sat 6th ¦ 11:00 & 23:20 ¦  05:40   ¦ 11:30 ¦ 17:30 7.0m

Sun 7th ¦ 11:30 & 00:00 ¦  06:20   ¦ 12:20 ¦ 18:10 7.4m

Mon 8th ¦ 12:10         ¦  07:00   ¦ 13:00 ¦ 18:50 7.7m

Tue 9th ¦ 00:30 & 12:30 ¦  07:40   ¦ 13:40 ¦ 19:30 7.8m

An added complication with the current forecast is that at some point the wind might turn light and possibly to the SW or cyclonic in which case The Scillies, Padstow (arrival close to HW and in daylight is possible at 5 knots on any day) or St Ives come into play but I'll ignore that and get the navigation software to do the numbers at two speeds, it is at times like these where automation makes some scenario planning practical. 

• Leaving on the Thursday the 5th during free flow addition time is required to get the 4 miles from the marina to Thorn Rock. 
• Tuesday the 9th is a spring tide, especially close to that, timing around Land's End (and The Lizard) and the weather becomes even more important, especially in a north westerly that would be wind against an adverse tide approaching The Brisons.
• The tide turns adverse off The Lizard at HW Plymouth + 3 hours
• I copy the tables shown here and other relevant data to my calendar so they are available on all my devices when I don't have a data connection and some I print out. It is not really necessary but it saves looking up the data on route or writing it all up in the log - which I subsequently probably would not be able to read due to my hand writing. It is also incontrovertible proof that I have complied with SOLAS requirements 😏 

Update: The lock gate was quickly fixed so Thursday was replanned locking out at the first exit time 2 hours after free flow and at a reduced average speed of 5.0 knots so as not to be early at the Brisons.

Day     Knts ¦ Leave ¦  Brisons     ¦ Runnel¦   Lizard 

                     ¦ (Earliest)   ¦ Stone ¦(Tide adverse)

Thu 4th 5.00 ¦ 05:50 ¦ 00:13(23:50) ¦ 01:00 ¦ 04:23(07:50)

        4.25 ¦ 04:00 ¦ 02:04(23:50) ¦ 03:00 ¦ 07:00(07:50) 

Fri 5th 5.25 ¦ 07:00 ¦ 00:27(00:40) ¦ 03:19 ¦ 06:33(08:40)

        4.25 ¦ 03:00 ¦ 02:04(00:40) ¦ 04:18 ¦ 08:11(08:40)

Sat 6th 5.25 ¦ 07:00 ¦ 01:19(01:20) ¦ 03:18 ¦ 06:37(09:20)

        4.25 ¦ 03:00 ¦ 01:57(01:20) ¦ 04:29 ¦ 08:16(09:20)

Sun 7th 5.25 ¦ 08:00 ¦ 02:20(02:00) ¦ 04:22 ¦ 07:35(10:00)

        4.25 ¦ 03:30 ¦ 02:21(02:00) ¦ 05:02 ¦ 08:46(10:00)

Mon 8th 5.25 ¦ 08:30 ¦ 02:42(02:30) ¦ 04:50 ¦ 08:02(10:40)

        4.25 ¦ 03:45 ¦ 02:40(02:30) ¦ 05:32 ¦ 09:16(10:40)

Clearly times are indicative and I would leave rather earlier if estimating 5.25 knots and would probably leave a little later than 03:00 and make up some time under engine if necessary to carry the tide round the Lizard. A little late at the Brisons would be more comfortable especially in a brisk wind when it would be best to stay further offshore where it could get rough with an adverse tide.

Autumn cruise.

The earliest date I had pencilled in to start my next cruise was August 28th, if this forecast is correct that is not going to happen, nor I suspect the more likely departure date I had in mind of the 30th.

ECMWF forecast for the 28th August. The remains of Hurricane
Erin. Earlier runs had shown it heading for Greenland. Large and
slow moving, if this pans out it could easily mean there will be no
window long enough for any more sailing this year 😡😡😡😡

Update Wednesday a.m. Now this is better, although the GFS is completely different and the UKMO somewhere in between on the 26th (as far as it goes):

ECMWF for the 28th.

GFS and ECMWF for the 29th.

Update Wednesday p.m.

There is a good analysis on the Met Office "Deep Dive" just published (on Wednesday) that also explains why the projection has changed in the last couple of days and is likely to keep changing (as it has done again on Thursday morning). Unfortunately the change may also predict the end of summer.

Ready to go

2025 June 20th, Day 83. To Fishguard.

For once my start time was not of major importance, particularly if I was to be motoring most of the way as the north and south tides cancel out so I did not set the alarm but I was awake early the eye mask having come off in the night (the boat does not have curtains over the windows). 

The 06:00 forecasts, available a little early, were not hopeful:

Met Éirenn Forecast for Irish coastal waters from Belfast Lough to Roche's Point to Erris Head and for the Irish Sea

Wind: Southerly or variable force 2 to 4.

Weather: Mainly fair, with isolated thunderstorms. Patchy mist and fog.

Visibility: Reducing moderate or poor in any precipitation, mist and fog. Otherwise good.

UKMO St Davids Head to Great Orme Head, including St Georges Channel

24 hour forecast: Southeast 3 to 5, becoming variable 2 to 4. Smooth or slight. Showers. Good.

Outlook for the following 24 hours: Variable 2 to 4, becoming southwest 3 to 5, occasionally 6 later near Anglesey. Smooth or slight, becoming slight or moderate later. Showers, fog patches at first. Good, occasionally very poor at first.

The morning model downloads of the ecmwf and ukmo models were also available and for the Welsh side of the channel were showing F4-5 later in the day, so I was away at 05:25 in a dead calm which lasted till lunch time.

Leaving Wicklow early doors.

Wiklow Head.

The tides pretty nearly balanced out with it
running strongly SW close to Fishguard.

But I struck lucky, the wind when it did arrive a little before noon, was from the NE and although tentative at first it freshened into a nice sailing breeze between NE and ENE 9 - 12 knots with the odd patch above and I was making from 4.5 to 5.5 knots under sail, with the wind a few degrees further north I could have put up the cruising chute and shot along but I was well pleased with what I got, especially given the forecast.

This lasted until 16:40 when the wind quickly veered to the SE, dead on the nose, and increased to F5 with the odd gust just touching F6. The engine went on 13 miles from Fishguard where I intended to spend a few days before hopefully returning to Milford with an intermediate stop or two to fill out some time.

The going now was now uncomfortable with a short sea keeping progress to 5 knots and often less. The nav software had done a good job, I had been steering 143 degrees since clearing the Arklow bank and was very close to the projected track, but I was concerned that neither it nor I knew how far out the very early inshore turn of the tide extends, the diamond is only a few cables from the coast and the next 15 miles off shore. Not wanting to be caught down tide I headed 10 degrees further to the north when ten miles out - I would rather be a mile up-tide heading down at 7 knots than down-tide heading up at 3. In the end I over did it by about half a mile but with the sea calming as I got very close to land and with the tide under me in no time at all it was corrected.

For once the 20 knot wind eased a few minutes before I dropped the anchor rather than 10 minutes after. I was at anchor before 8 o'clock and for the first time this cruise I was able to eat dinner in the cockpit, just ham sandwiches on this occasion as I could not be bothered to heat up the curry left overs and do the rice. And I got to use the medium weight sleeping bag rather than the winter one or both.

The weather forecast for the next week had worsened and I suspected I'd have to change the plan but being tired I decided to leave thinking about that until the morning and the next post. 

No pics of the anchorage due to the conditions and an earlier than planned departure.

75 miles in fourteen and a half hours.

Click here for Dale.

2025 June 18th, Day 81. The Skerries, options and weather.

This post is again primarily a reminder to myself for the future of what was going on and a working through of options to clarify them in my own mind. But it might just be of interest as an example of  problems of long term passage planning Click here to jump to another dash south.

Wednesday a.m.

My options are a little constrained, I now have to be back in Milford Marina early on the 1st July, not later, so that I can take my wife for a Hospital appointment on the 2nd, and not earlier or it could cost me a months berthing for not being away 3 months. That means planning to be at anchor somewhere in the Haven on the 30th or earlier, I can then enter the marina during free flow at c 09:15 and on the midday train to get home early evening.

I would like to go to Anglesey to go through the Menai Straights but there are weather and timing constraints on that:

• Tides mean that the earliest realistic date to go through is June 23rd or perhaps the 22nd. On the 23rd the tide requires arriving at the Swellies, the dangerous bit between the two bridges, at or slightly before 07:50 and it is 17 miles from the Dulas Bay anchorage and 7 miles from the closest which could be a bit iffy depending on the conditions. 
• Neither anchorage for the northern entrance is usable in an onshore wind of any strength and going from Holyhead is not practical with the tides that week.
• A SW wind means a 12 mile beat or motor from Caernarfon Bar to the nearest anchorage so a brisk south-westerly makes that a long job, and a strong one makes the Caernarfon Bar dangerous.
• Once past the Straights the passage to Milford has tidal gates at Braich y Pyll / Bardsey Island, then Strumble head and/or The Bishops and then again past Skomer Island all of the way into Milford.

So I will need to be lucky with the weather and also not commit to crossing to Anglesey until I'm sure I will not get weatherbound in Hollyhead or elsewhere close to the end of the month. Clearly the forecasts that far out are not to be relied on but the ecmwf is not looking good for that:

The ecmwf forecast for the Saturday 28th, if this pans out I'll
want to be within the Haven by then.

The models are split on the 22rd and 23rd:

The 22nd.

If the ecmwf is correct then its is probably OK but if the UKMO
is correct then I'd be stuck in Hollyhead if I left early.

With this in mind I need to stay this side of the Irish Sea until things become clearer. Contrary to previous predictions the winds for the next few days are generally light to moderate with a lot of east in them, not turning south until Saturday and then according to the UKMO potentially quite strong on Sunday or Monday as shown above.

Easterly moderate winds could be a problem at the Skerries so I might move a bit further south tomorrow, perhaps Howth Sound behind Ireland's Eye or to anchor near Dun Laoghaire marina in Dublin Bay which would also make for a bit of variety, get me a bit further south and give me something to do. I'd then have the option of heading for Hollyhead on Saturday or hunkering down for a day or two before moving south as weather permits knowing that assuming the weather is not horrendous I can get back to Milford under engine in 24 hours.

The Skerries Wednesday morning

Wednesday p.m.

South is coming back into some predictions but this does cover a large area, Met Éirenn forecast Wednesday 12:00:

Forecast for Irish coastal waters from Erris Head to Howth Head to Valentia and for the Irish Sea

Wind: Southerly or variable force 3 or less, touching force 4 at times.

Weather: Cloudy to fair.

I had been thinking of blowing up the dinghy to go ashore but a wind has blown up that would require the outboard and that’s too much hassle for a sort trip ashore. 

Click here for a late planned dash south.

2025 June 15th, Days 78 - 79 Knockinelder Bay south.

Facebook posts:

06:40: The forecast this morning is not good, light to moderate winds on the nose but there may be westerly or even NW this afternoon or evening that would help. The next few days are worse from here with possible F6 later tomorrow, so I’m going for as far S as I can manage, hopefully The Skerries, once there there will be more options.

Currently (06:43) bashing through the over falls off Strangford under engine with the SSW wind, that has just increased from F2 to F4, and the tide right on the nose, making them worse, when the tide turns in an hour or so things should be more comfortable. Hoping it doesn’t rain to much.

07:10? Through the worst of the over-falls but now F5 on the nose. this water was dead flat as I approached in light winds, a few minutes after the wind increased it was like this. At no time was I within the charted area (just) as soon as I saw it I headed further out helped by the tide from Strangford - if the tide had been going in I would have been further out to start with although the over-falls are worse on the ebb. It got worse after this but I had to stop filming.

08:45: Alongside at Ardglass. With revs for 5.5 knots I was struggling to make three against a short steep sea and that was before the tide turned into the wind. 3 hours to cover 9 miles and the first 3 were at speed in calm water.

The wind is unlikely to turn even to the W let alone NW before 14:00 and it could be light so it would be a VERY long day motoring and I’m not in that much of a hurry.

There was very heavy rain as I approached the harbour but mercifully brief and it had gone before I entered. The entry was rather intimidating as it was low water and the front pontoon was full so I had to go round to the back through a narrow gap with about a foot of water under the keel but I made it without incident.

I made a quick trip to the shop for bread and lunch before the rain started again, light but I am parked with the stern to the wind so have to have the hatch shut which is not helping my gear dry, the boots especially are still soaking inside, fortunately the alternate jacket that I know leaks but was dry when I left and not heavy with water was good enough to withstand the brief shower and the French spare boots that are rather tight definitely do not leak.

There is a chandlery here mainly catering for the commercial fisherman so I will visit tomorrow to see if they have a Guy Cotten jacket for when it's really wet and which does not get very heavy with absorbed water.

I'm not making any firm plans for a day or two until I see how the forecasts are trending but I am checking out the direct route to Anglesey which although a long leg with a TSS in the way should be doable in a SW wind without tacking.

10 miles over the ground in over 3 hours 😒

Monday a.m.

The tentative plan is to head south tomorrow leaving on the tide about 09:00 if the forecast is to be believed, earlier if it is calm, later if the wind has not dropped. Dundalk Bay about 30 miles away is the most likely destination but 45 miles to The Skerries is not ruled out. It Dundalk then it will likely be 20 miles to The Skerries on Wednesday, leaving early for the tide (the ebb runs south south of Dundalk) and hopefully to get most of the way there before the wind backs to the S or SE but I don’t put a lot of credence on that this far out.

Dundalk or even Ardglass direct to Anglesey can’t be ruled out but is probably unlikely, the forecasts are dependent on the position of shallow “waves” in the isobars that can’t be acutely predicted so who knows?

What happens for the rest of the week is anyone’s guess although easterlies might come along as a slack area of high pressure drifts northeast wards across UK but it probably means heading to Anglesey will not happen for a while, if at all.

At long last I might get a few warm or hot days.

Monday p.m.

Facebook Post:

I have been to the local chandlery and hopefully I'll not get soaked by rain again. French Guy Cotten top, very basic but quite long and waterproof to the highest PPE standard, ditto new boots made in Italy, they are particularly impressive, ISO standard with crush proof toe caps, non slip on steel, penetration resistant etc..

The top would not be as comfortable dry as a yachty design but it will only be used, probably on top of the Henry Lloyd (it is large enough), when its raining.

The price? Together £140, about half the price of the cheapest Musto offshore jacket and 10% the price of a premium Musto suit. If its good enough for trawlermen.....

Also, laundry done, water replenished, refuelled, a bit of shopping and ready for the off. 

The 12:00 inshore forecast looks reasonable for tomorrow, if it is W 3 - 4 after midnight and before c 06:00, The Skerries (see above) are a good possibility :

Lough Foyle to Carlingford Lough - Strong wind warning

24 hour forecast: South or southwest 3 to 6, veering west 3 or 4 later. Slight, becoming slight or moderate. Occasional rain or drizzle later. Good, occasionally moderate or poor later.

Outlook for the following 24 hours: West or northwest, becoming variable later, 3 or 4. Slight or moderate, becoming smooth or slight except in far north. Mainly fair. Good.

But the Met Eireann 12:00 forecast for the next 24 hours does not agree:

Irish coastal waters from Malin Head to Carnsore Point to Valentia and for the Irish Sea 

Wind: Increasing south to southwest force 4 or 5 imminent, occasionally force 6 in the east and on the Irish Sea. Later increasing force 6 at times in the north. Decreasing south-westerly force 4 or 5 by the end of the period.

Click here for the next leg south.