2025 June 18th, Day 81. The Skerries, options and weather.

This post is primarily a reminder to myself for the future what was going on and a working through of options to clarify them in my own mind. But it might just be of interest as an example of  problems of long term passage planning [to follow: Click here to jump to ????]

Wednesday a.m.

My options are a little constrained, I now have to be back in Milford Marina early on the 1st July, not later, so that I can take my wife for a Hospital appointment on the 2nd, and not earlier or it could cost me a months berthing for not being away 3 months. That means planning to be at anchor somewhere in the Haven on the 30th or earlier, I can then enter the marina during free flow at c 09:15 and on the midday train to get home early evening.

I would like to go to Anglesey to go through the Menai Straights but there are weather and timing constraints on that:

• Tides mean that the earliest realistic date to go through is June 23rd or perhaps the 22nd. On the 23rd the tide requires arriving at the Swellies, the dangerous bit between the two bridges, at or slightly before 07:50 and it is 17 miles from the Dulas Bay anchorage and 7 miles from the closest which could be a bit iffy depending on the conditions. 
• Neither anchorage for the norther entrance is usable in an onshore wind of any strength and going from Holyhead is not practical with the tides that week.
• A SW wind means a 12 mile beat or motor from Caernarfon Bar to the nearest anchorage so a brisk south-westerly makes that a long job, and a strong one makes the Caernarfon Bar dangerous.
• Once past the Straights the passage to Milford has tidal gates at Braich y Pyll / Bardsey Island, then Strumble head and/or The Bishops then past Skomer Island into Milford.

So I will need to be lucky with the weather and also not commit to crossing to Anglesey until I'm sure I will not get weatherbound in Hollyhead or elsewhere close to the end of the month. Clearly the forecasts that far out are not to be relied on but the ecmwf is not looking good for that:

The ecmwf forecast for the Saturday 28th, if this pans out I'll
want to be within the Haven by then.

The models are split on the 22rd and 23rd:

The 22nd.

If the ecmwf is correct then its is probably OK but if the UKMO
is correct then I'd be stuck in Hollyhead if I left early.

With this in mind I need to stay this side of the Irish Sea until things become clearer. Contrary to previous predictions the winds for the next few days are generally light to moderate with a lot of east in them, not turning south until Saturday and then according to the UKMO potentially quite strong on Sunday or Monday as shown above.

Easterly moderate winds could be a problem at the Skerries so I might move a bit further south tomorrow, perhaps Howth Sound behind Ireland's Eye or to anchor near Dun Laoghaire marina in Dublin Bay which would also make for a bit of variety, get me a bit further south and give me something to do. I'd then have the option of heading for Hollyhead on Saturday or hunkering down for a day or two before moving south as weather permits knowing that assuming the weather is not horrendous I can get back to Milford under engine in 24 hours.

The Skerries Wednesday morning

Wednesday p.m.

South is coming back into some predictions but this does cover a large area, Met Éirenn forecast Wednesday 12:00:

Forecast for Irish coastal waters from Erris Head to Howth Head to Valentia and for the Irish Sea

Wind: Southerly or variable force 3 or less, touching force 4 at times.

Weather: Cloudy to fair.

I had been thinking of blowing up the dinghy to go ashore but a wind has blown up that would require the outboard and that’s too much hassle for a sort trip ashore. 

Click here for a late planned dash south.