Thursday
A quick shopping trip, only slightly delayed by ASDA not opening till 08:00, shower, paid the Bill and I was away at 09:15 to be ahead of the forecast rain and thunder. I am now back at anchor in Ballyholme Bay where it is quite busy for mid week with 5 6 yachts at anchor, more than I have seen overnight and there are lots of spare berths in the marina; perhaps rising marina charges are pushing more people to spend time at anchor?
I needn't have been in quite so much of a hurry as the 12:00 inshore and domestic forecasts dropped the Thunder storms, put back the rain although there is still poor weather on the way.
Lough Foyle to Carlingford Lough - Strong wind warning
24 hour forecast: South or southeast 4 to 6. Slight or moderate. Rain then showers, fog patches developing in east. Moderate or good, occasionally poor in west and very poor in east.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: South or southeast 4 to 6, becoming variable 2 to 4. Slight or moderate becoming smooth or slight. Showers, fog patches at first in east. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor at first in east.
The plan remains to head south on Saturday and if the sea is calm there anchoring in Knockinelder Bay just N of Strangford Lough on Saturday night. There is rain forecast for Saturday, if the forecast gets worse I might wait till Sunday, after that the models are showing generally light but favourable winds till Friday.
If the sea and / or wind are not amenable to anchoring I will go into Ardglass but otherwise I don't really need to, although a shower and a chineese from the take-away is always welcome, as I managed to get a lot of long dated supplies for main meals and I have diesel to motor all the way to Milford with a 150 mile reserve if I really had to.
Friday a.m..
Unless it happened whilst I slept, which I doubt, F6 winds have not appeared but since mid afternoon yesterday the weather has been really mucky with continuous rain and fog / heavy mist and F4-5 winds veering from the E to SSW, but it was warmer overnight than at any time on this cruise, but I was still using the warmer of my sleeping bags, rather than both.
There were an awful lot of very wet sailors out racing yachts last night, and one yacht left the anchorage at about 05:30 this morning probably to get the first of the favourable southerly tide through Donaghadee Sound; rather them than me in this weather.
The automated domestic forecast shows this weather, apart from the wind direction, continuing through tomorrow (2 "rain drops" 80-90% probability for much of the day) but the inshore forecast at 07:00 is just a little more optimistic:
Lough Foyle to Carlingford Lough - Strong wind warning
24 hour forecast: Southerly or southeasterly, veering southwesterly for a time, 4 to 6, becoming variable 2 to 4 later. Slight or moderate, becoming smooth or slight later. Fog patches at first in east, otherwise showers. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor at first in east and poor elsewhere.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: Variable 2 to 4, becoming north or northwest 3 to 5 for a time, then west later. Smooth or slight. Occasional rain or showers, becoming mainly fair later. Moderate or good, occasionally poor until later.
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| The ECMWF and ECMWF models show, the heavy rain along or just off the coast. |
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| The models show the northerly setting in early to mid morning but we can see why there is some uncertainty about timing and rain, it all depends on how quickly the small area of low pressure moves east. |
In the few minutes that it took me to write the above the domestic forecast changed to show slightly less rain tomorrow with 70-80% probability of "2 rain drops" over a shorter period.
Tomorrow the tide through Donaghadee Sound sets south at 06:15, normally I would set the alarm for 04:40 and leave at 05:15 for 7 - 8 hours of south going tide, with a decent wind or under engine all of the way to Ardglass (the tide sets south earlier in The Sound than offshore and earlier north than south) but this time I think I'll leave it a while and just look out of the window and check the met office radar to decide if and what time to head south, giving up some favourable tide to stay dry and hopefully get an hour or twos extra sleep.
Friday p.m..
The wind has gone round to the SW or WSW F3-4 but the tide is foul in Donaghadee Sound and I suspect the wind chan will not last. The good news is the sun is starting to break through and it could turn into a pleasant evening.
Friday evening.
F6 is now in the forecast for tomorrow and early Sunday:
Lough Foyle to Carlingford Lough - Strong wind warning
24 hour forecast: Southeasterly backing northwesterly later, 3 to 5, occasionally 6 later. Slight or moderate, occasionally smooth later. Rain or showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor later.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: North or northwest 3 to 5, occasionally 6 at first, becoming variable 2 to 4 later. Smooth or slight. Occasional rain or showers, becoming mainly fair. Moderate or good, occasionally poor at first.
However it is blowing offshore, will be behind me and looking at the models most of it is further north, it will certainly be one for a late decision, essentially as a lot of rain is back in the domestic forecast. However if I don’t move south I’ll probably have to go back into the marina as this anchorage is wide open to the N & NW.
Change of plan: Subject to seeing the midnight forecast in the morning I'll leave early tomorrow, under engine, which I would in any case use to and through the sound, then sail as the wind sets in, I can reach the anchorage or Ardglass before stronger winds are likely to arrive, if they do - according to the models, Met Eireann and the domestic forecasts the coast south of here should not be too windy except perhaps for gusts or in squalls. I'll probably get wet for longer than going into the marina but I think this is the preferable option as headwinds are now being forecast for Monday.
Ardglass might or an anchorage south of there might become favourite so I would have an easier leg to The Skerries on Sunday.
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