Wednesday 11th, a.m..
Detailed planning is a waste of time at the moment as the forecasts are all over the place and don't agree in the medium term. What appears to be certain is a brisk wind tonight into tomorrow but not as bad as the models were showing yesterday morning, the met office this morning think otherwise but I think they are concerned with gusting winds further north.
Lough Foyle to Carlingford Lough - Strong wind warning
24 hour forecast: South or southeast 3 to 5, occasionally 6 later. Smooth or slight, occasionally moderate later in north. Rain or thundery showers later. Good, occasionally poor later.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: South or southeast 4 to 6. Slight or moderate. Occasional rain and thundery showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
Also fairly certain is that the winds are likely to be southerly and occasionally easterly for the next few days and I am reminded of the old saying that gentlemen [especially this elderly one] do not sail to windward, also anchorages outside of Strangford Lough are all exposed to easterly winds.
The short term plan, such as it is, is to move back to Ballyholme Bay tomorrow afternoon or Friday if it is blowing a hooley, that is well sheltered from the south and east so I should be comfortable enough for a couple of nights and save fees in the moderately expensive marina. Then I will head south on Saturday with a moderately civilised start time to get through Donaghadee Sound at the start of the south going tide. Some motoring may be required if the forecast is right (unlikely that far out), if the sea has calmed down I might find an anchorage but I suspect I'll end up in Ardglass which will not be a disaster as that could be the last place for resupply for a long time and I might well go in anyway on Sunday for stores.
After that I will meander south. One of the longer term options I see at the moment is to go across to Anglesey to tick another thing off my bucket list - The Menai Straights. Providing the weather is kind (no northerly component and not too strong from the SW for when I get to the southern end) the tides look at first glance to be OK from about the 23rd June which would let me cruise down to Fishguard and Milford for my optimum arrival there on the 1st July to secure a months "free" berthing vs arriving before the 30th June.
Wednesday p.m..
It maybe a Friday to move to the anchorage, the inshore and domestic forecasts are now predicting thunderstorms and heavy rain tomorrow afternoon to go along with some wind but an early move after shopping my be the answer, the sea at the anchorage is calm at the moment and likely to remain so.
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