2025 Review and Stats.

 A very disappointing second half of the season, for the third year on the trot I had to cut short a cruise and this time rotten weather in September prevented a second cruise of any length so that despite an early start my distance sailed and days sailing were the lowest since the Covid abbreviated 2020 season. 

On the plus side I did spend a slightly higher proportion of my time at anchor and I avoided days stuck in horrendously expensive marinas that cost me so much in 2024. Also I had no breakages or breakdowns apart from the darn heater and diesel bug discovered when I got back to Milford Haven, but apart from labour and a few litres of fuel that didn't cost anything or delay me.

Statistics through September 2025 from my summary log kept in Excel:

Click to view,

2025 1st cruise: 84 days. 337.5 hours at sea, 27 night hours (minimal as many of the longer legs were in what counted for summer in Scotland), 1,602 nautical miles, 1,844 statute miles, 44 days at sea, 28 weather bound. 47 nights at anchor.

Second cruise just Milford to Padstow and back, 161 NM, 185 SM, 4 days sailing if you include the two short hops between Port Quin Bay and Padstow, 2 nights at anchor and 2 nights in Padstow. Very little diesel used on this trip 😀.

There was some excellent sailing around Scotland, Orkney and Shetland and the cruising chute and particulalry the spinnaker got a lot more use than normal. On the other hand there was still too much motoring for my liking, too many days weather bound (although well shy of the record in 2023) and I really needed the heater that broke down (again) shortly after leaving, I was using thermals almost every day until the middle of June - there was no heat wave up north! Thankfully there was little rain until I reached Stornoway on the way back. 

48 port / anchorage calls was well down on previous years but 29 of those where visited for the first time which was good.

Now a very long wait until next years cruise, starting in late March or April and probably around Ireland with an excursion to the Hebrides. Then after several aborted attempts hopefully the Channel Islands with a stop off in the Scillies one way or the other - or both.

2025 Sept 8th, Day 5 - Back to Milford.

Another quick passage, not quite as bumpy as outbound but quite a few squalls/ downpours, the cheap Guy Cotten fisherman's waterproofs and Italian working boots again proving their worth. 

One line squall came through at the top end of F6 that veered 30 degrees that had me bearing away to run off before it whilst getting another reef in the genoa, like the outbound trip I did not use the mainsail. After it had passed the wind was variable in direction and down to 5 knots for getting on for an hour, with a very lumpy sea I couldn't sail so motored for a bit. When the wind returned it was from the SSW and back to F5 so it was a very broad reach with a reef in the genoa.

I made free flow with an hour to spare. That was particularly good news as the forecast for next morning was very bad and I would have had to wait to lock in that evening.

A thunder storm passing astern after a frighteningly loud crash of
 thunder, fortunately no lightning coming down that I could see.

74NM in 16 hours.

Click here for my review of the year and some stats. 

2025 Sept 7th, Day 4 - Portquin Bay

I am back in Portquin Bay for a flying start early on Monday, forecast SW F3-5. I was rather worried earlier, they were not sure the gate would open after earlier problems but I was in luck.

The gate decided to open for me but it was a rush to get back
to the boat and out after paying the very reasonable berthing fee as
the staff thought they might have to close it in c 45 minutes, I
didn't hang around to find out why!

Pentire Point and The Rumps from the western side.

It was another uncomfortable night and this time I was not tired and slept badly so was away at 03:00 before the alarm. In retrospect I should have anchored further to the south east in the next little bay which would at least have been free of waves reflected from the cliff. Another boat arrived overnight and when I left she looked completely stable although some of that would be down to her being substantially bigger.

Sailed from The Doom Bar to north of The Rumps.
5.7 NM in 2 hours including faffing about at each end.

Click for The leg back to Milford.

2025 Sept 7th, Day 4 - Cruise abandoned.

Once I gave up on Land's End on day one I thought it would come to this, but looking at the various forecasts I could have got shuck for a long time on the south coast, instead of having the option of returning on Monday in what promises to be reasonable, even good, sailing weather.

The ECMWF and GFS models both show moderate to strong winds for the next 10 days with only short breaks, getting round Land's End to Newlyn would be a struggle with likely poor conditions there, added to that the met office "Long range" forecast has got progressively worse over the last 10 days and although there may be some spells of better weather it is unlikely I would get enough sailing in to justify spending a lot of time here, or else where, waiting for it.

ECMWF and GFS forecasts for next Sunday

Tomorrow looks better and is the longest window this week for a trip back to Milford and the forecast can be expected to be reasonably reliable a day out.

UKMO and ECMWF for Monday

Lands End to St Davids Head including the Bristol Channel - Strong wind warning [from 07:00 today]

24 hour forecast: Southeast veering southwest 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first, then veering west 3 or 4 later. Moderate or rough in west, slight or moderate in east. Rain at first, then thundery showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor at first.

Outlook for the following 24 hours: Westerly 3 or 4, backing southwesterly 4 or 5, then backing southerly 5 or 6 later in west. Moderate in west, smooth or slight in east. Showers, thundery at first. Good, occasionally moderate at first.

The harbour gate will be open tomorrow morning from c 04:32 until c 08:32 with 6m of water from 05:00, an 05:00 departure would mean fighting the last of the flood down the estuary and it would be dark, it is well lit so not a problem and there is much to be said for going out on a rising tide but, if the weather is kind I may go out at about 17:30 this afternoon and go to an anchorage, I could then make a quick getaway in the morning with an outside chance of making free flow through the loch into Milford Marina.

Free flow into Milford marina ends at 19:30 so I'll probably not make that, especially if leaving from Padstow; rather than wait and faff around locking through in the dark I'll probably go into Dale anchorage, sort the boat out and go in between 07:00 and 08:00 on Tuesday in time to get a train home arriving at sensible time. Then back down by car to start winterisation, service the engine and get at least a coupe of loads of stuff home before lifting out on October 22nd.

Padstow is not as well protected from southerly

winds as I had assumed, at least with the gate open.

This video after the worst of it with the tide still making

wind against tide, with small waves coming in.

A short video, I had to rush to take their lines as they

took the berth  behind me, a good job that I did as with

the wind blowing them on to the wall and towards me

my wind vane self steering could have, and nearly

did, take a battering. 

P.S. As at Sept 14th there hasn't been two successive days of wind to get round Land's End and it would have been heads winds most of the way if I had tried going via St Ives. And it is worse until at least the 22nd, so a good decision.

Click for Portquin Bay.

2025 Sept 5th, Day 2. Padstow.

It was very uncomfortable first thing but improved during the day as I waited for the tide to move round to Padstow. 

The Mouls, waves pass between it and Rump Point (out of frame left),
not a problem in calm weather or when the boat points into the waves
but very uncomfortable when a combination of the ebb tide and wind
causes the boat to lie broadside to them.

The weather is not looking good with more strong winds showing up over the next ten days, as I posted on Facebook:

"I think there is a better than even chance that I’ll have to give up on this cruise, the latest forecast gives little or no hope of getting round Lands End or to the Scillies in the next 10 days ( I had hoped to be in Falmouth now) and for much of that time there is no place to anchor comfortably around here and there is little point in paying to stay In Padstow for the duration.

The weather should be good enough to get back to Milford leaving early Monday before and after that it looks very dodgy, I’ll make a decision on Sunday. Fortunately the lock times at Padstow, I am moving there this afternoon, are helpful for an early start, (Monday 04:40- 08:15) and the narrow channel is lit."

The trip into Padstow requires enough water to safely cross "Doom" bar and navigate the channel which looks more complicated than it is, I had plotted the route in Memory Map and transferred that to the plotter so that that in theory the autopilot could steer all of the way whilst I kept a look out - that works if other boats don't get in the way! Several did.

The route in plotted on MemoryMap and the 1:25k and 1:19k
Admiraly chart before transferred to the plotter to drive the
 autopilot. That leaves me free to monitor what is going on.
The large buoy symbols are my way points not the charted position
of the buoy. I always leave room for them to swing.

This was a disappointment, I had hoped to follow this boat in as
she was ahead of me and draws more than Sancerre so would
have struck first but the skipper had other ideas and repositioned
himself to follow me.

Polzeath on the eastern side of the entrance.

It had started to spot with rain as I left Portquin Bay so I had got all of the water proofs on, when the sun came out I got rid of the top but was stuck with the salopettes which made for warm work as I approached the harbour. I had booked a place that morning but could not get berthing information until off St Saviour's Point only three cables from the harbour entrance, with moored boats and several moving plus shallow water to port and rocks close to starboard, it was a bit of a rush to get fenders and lines out, but I managed just in time without turning round.

The approach channel near low water, the chart shows it drying
by 3.5 metres at the Lowest Astronomical Tide, I suspect it has
more at the moment, it certainly appeared so as I entered but I
was busy at the time so I will certainly use the charted number
when I leave. Some charts don't show the final lateral marks,
the 2025 Admiralty chart and the Padstow web site do.

Along side in Padstow, the fender board getting it's first use
protecting from the excellent but protruding access ladder rather
than the wall.

The (inner) harbour gate close to low water.

HMS Warwick was commanded by Commander W.A. Rayner DSC and bar
an exceptional RNVR officer of WWII who wrote  "Escort: the Battle of
the Atlantic" that is in my view is the best book on convoy escort duty of
the period. After the war he went on to found Westerly Boats, probably
 the most successful builder of small to medium cruising yachts from the 70s
to the 80s.

I was not going to  lash out over £100 for a meal at Rick Steins
but I had to try the fish and chips from the take away - very
good,  although the Haddock was of adequate size rather than
generous (£18.50).

5.4 NM in an hour and a half.

Slide show of more Padstow pictures on the next post.

Click here for Sunday.

 

2025 Sept 4th, Day 1. Portquin Bay

The trip down on Wednesday was not an auspicious start to the trip as someone hi-jacked my taxi, fortunately I fagged it down just as they realised they were in the wrong car; on our street of about 12 households  two of us had booked a car from the same company, at the same time and both to the station although I was going to Bicester Town, now known as Bicester Village 😡, whilst they were going to Bicester North. With that sorted I had a reasonable trip down arriving 20 minutes late.

Preparing to leave took rather longer than hoped with a couple of minor things to sort out, after a trip to the supermarket I found that I did not have any plastic food boxes I use for food storage so I had to go back and buy some more. I have had a feeling I was missing something for the previous couple of days and had gone through my check lists twice but they were not on it as they normally live on the boat, this time I had taken them home for a good clean, hopefully subconsciously these what I was worried about.

All this meant I didn't get to bed until gone eleven and for some reason I did not get to sleep until past midnight, not good with a long trip ahead, hopefully past The Lizard.

I was up at 03:15 to calm dry conditions, the forecast was for heavy thundery showers for some hours, rain is a pain but I can deal with that, lightening at sea is a different matter - potentially dangerous and always stressful, but the weather radar showed I should be clear of it by  nine or ten o'clock and there were no lightening strikes showing, so off I went leaving the berth at 04:15 as it started to spot with rain. by the time I was through the lock the rain was quite heavy and at times it was very heavy as I went down the Haven out to sea.

Unfortunately by the time I was past Turbot Bank I only had the midnight inshore forecast and the previous evenings downloads and with no phone signal could only wait for the Coastguard's safety broadcast which did not come for some time. What I had was not encouraging and, even past the often difficult water at the entrance to The Haven, known locally as "The Washing Machine", there were some very big sets coming through, certainly at the top end of the "Rough" category (2.5 - 4 metres) rather than the forecast "moderate" and I suspect it was occasionally "Very Rough"

I was not feeling well at this stage with incipient sea sickness. Complex pilotage at night in poor conditions frequently needing to check the plotter, radar etc., is one thing that can set me off  and I had forgotten the pill I take when this is likely at the start of a cruise and with the rain hammering down I decided, probably incorrectly, not to try and get below to find one. I was conscious that sea sickness can lead to poor decision making, so with all of the above, I regretfully decided against Land's End and took the safe option and headed towards Padstow. 

The rain stopped at 08:30 as the wind quickly went from 4 knots to 15 from the NW so off went the engine and I was sailing under reefed headsail making better speed considerably more comfortably as the sail stopped the exaggerated roll to windward although it was lunch time before I was feeling fit again.

The wind backed a little but was reasonably stable from about 277 degrees +/- 10 at F4 but mainly F5 until I was about 10 miles north of Padstow when it increased on occasion to a not forecast F6.

As expected I missed the tide to get into Padstow although only by an hour but with a F5-6, even with the sea coming from only a tad north of west, I would probably not have attempted to cross the bar. So I anchored in Portquin Bay where it was safe but very uncomfortable with the boat lying across the chop coming through the gap betwen Rumps Point and The Mouls.

Wind some times against tide made for an uncomfortable ride
but with good holding and miles (literally) of sea room down
wind it was perfectly safe and as I suspected I slept through a
lot of it.

Click here for Padstow.

And he is off (Hopefully)

Tuesday 2nd September 

After 2 months ashore for the Memsahibs new knee, the weather looked, until late Sunday, as if it would be a while before I could go sailing, then a small window opened up. This morning it has opened a bit more and providing that tomorrows last appointment with the consultant surgeon goes well, and I can catch the train, AND its not too late getting to Milford, I should be off  well before first sparrow chirp on Thursday. If I don't make it I'll have to rethink as going south into the forecast head winds would not be much fun.

I'm not sure were I will be headed but as described in a previous post, the tide is good close in to Cape Cornwall from 01:00 on Friday to take me past The Lizard. But I am not convinced that the weather and sea will be good enough, also there may be some strong winds with south in them over the weekend and early next week. So, for the moment, the target is Rick Stein Ville aka Padstow and I'll make a decision on Land's End, or perhaps Lundy, when I am past Turbot Bank and hopefully have the latest forecasts and models.

With a very quick passage I might just scrape into the harbour on Thursday evening but more realistically I'll anchor in Port Quin Bay or Polventon Bay and go into Padstow on Friday (HW 04:31 & 16:51), or perhaps on Saturday if I decide to go for a local sail or have a day at anchor.

ECMWF & UKMO models for 04:00 Thursday as of Tuesday 03:00.
The ECMWF shows NW winds from c 07:00 reaching c 15 knots by
lunch time.

And for 17:00. A nice reach but it could get rather wet and bumpy
with swell & waves left over from earlier strong winds.

I'll want to be somewhere safe on Tuesday (and on Sunday).

Click here for Day 1 of the cruise.

Autumn cruise, ready to go after a mucky job.

It is not looking good for next weekend but perhaps early next week?  But I am beginning to think it won't happen at all with only one very short window currently showing over the next 10 days 😡

ECMWF and GFS for Friday 5th Sept. 

Of course the forecasts are not to be relied on that far out but the long term forecast for the 9th - 23rd is not that good:

Low pressure patterns are expected to dominate at the start of this period, bringing changeable weather conditions with showers or some longer spells of rain [and wind]. Conditions may begin to turn more settled and drier later in the period, particularly in the south. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly above average.

I suspect a quick dash to the Isles of Scilly and Cornwall is the best I can look forward too, probably with a good deal of time spent sheltering from bad weather before the boat is lifted in October and a third season on the trot restricted due to family emergencies. At least the delayed start might avoid another complication:

The lock out of the marina is again faulty so I can only get out during free flow, not a show stopper but  inconvenient - on the Sunday 31st free flow is 21:47 - 23:47 which with with an hour and a half to Dale anchorage that does not give me much, if any, sleep before a 03:00 start so if the Lock is not fixed I would have to go down on Saturday and get out on Sunday morning, weather permitting. Update: fixed quickly this time.

To be a bit more positive, after a trip to the boat over the last couple of days it is now ready for the off, when the time comes I just need to load fresh food + valuables and I'll be off.

Also one disgusting job is out of the way - cleaning the bilge which was very overdue; and was last winter as well, but then my back problems meant it didn't get done. With the hot weather the stink of bilge was not pleasant until the boat had a good airing. After about 6 hours uncomfortable work it was done and now I just have to make the 5 mile trip go to the waste disposal centre to get rid of the cleaning materials and the oil, grease, etc. that came out.

All of the water & grease from the stern gland goes through the aft
section together with the odd spill of oil and diesel, but cleaning was
easy and it got a coat of paint to fill / cover up a few small cracks.

The main bilge was a different kettle of fish and needed a lot of
work helped by some automotive degreaser.

The paint on the lower keel bolts is in great shape, the ones above
the sump have a few places that will need touching up this winter
but they are not as bad as they look in the picture, most of the rust
coloured stains are just that but I'll treat them properly when the boat
is out of the water and completely dry - the aft one could easily get
 wet from stern gland drips that tend to pool then suddenly come
 forward as the boat moves.

Click here for the off.

Planning a south bound passage from Milford round Lands End

This is an example of my planning to round Lands End south bound to be read in conjunction with my page on Passage making up the west coast.

E & OE, see Reeds, other Almanacks or an appropriate pilot and work it out for yourself!

Background.

Rewritten a week, hopefully, before my Autumn cruise in 2025, it will probably need changing as the likely weather window is small but I need to do some work on the boat between now and leaving and so this is the last opportunity to do it before going to the boat, if the weather window changes or the wind is lighter than forecast I'll have to recalculate, but a day plus or minus is a trivial job. Also I have nothing to do today.

I would prefer to go via St Ives or the Scillies and still might if the forecast changes, but at present neither would be practical with NW winds backing SW, but both are easier to plan than this route so I can easily change if the opportunity arises, even on the way across - it would not be the first time. The good news is that 15 knots of north westerly wind would make for a very quick passage under sail.

Todays ECMWF forecast for 12:00 on Saturday 30th. I'm sure it
will change, hopefully for the better before and after to give me
some flexibility.

Tides.

Lands End with a track of a previous passage
north bound. A bit closer in south bound would
be good to get the early turning  south going
tide. Also the inshore route past The Longships.
 The Longships Fl(2) white clears The Brisons.

For the bulk of the trip across the Celtic Sea my SeaPro navigation software can be relied upon to give reasonable timings and a Course to Steer until past the N cardinal buoy marking the "Wave Hub" NE of the Off Land's End TSS, after that there are too few tidal diamonds to accurately cover the critical portion around Lands End, CTS is unlikely to be an issue as that can be eyeballed or the autopilot can take me to a way point but timing is an issue so the text and small chart-lets in Reeds or the RCCPF pilot need to be consulted.

Very close in to Cape Cornwall and "The Brisons" the tide sets south at HW Dover + 2 hours but is not slack or running south further off shore for another c 5 hours.

At The Runnel Stone, off Gwennap Head just south of Lands End, the east going tide runs until HWD -1 and it is 9 miles from The Runnel Stone to Newlyn and 19 to south of The Lizard. 

Ideally therefore if heading for Newlyn you need to plan to be at the Runnel Stone no later than about HW Dover +5 hours for a fair tide or there will be a brisk one on the nose.

The Calculations.

Redone as the weather does not look good for the 30th, the best day would be Monday, although that is very marginal at the moment

HW Dover 

Monday 1st September 2025 05:00 and 18:00, 1 day before neaps.
Tuesday 2nd September 2025 07:00 and 19:40

So the optimum time to be close inshore off Cape Cornwall on Saturday would be 18:00 + 2 = 20:00 but more realistically if its a bit blowy some time between  20:00 and 23:30.

Times UTC

Turning to SeaPro with a plan for Milford to the Fal, leaving Thorn Rock buoy earlier than I would like at 04:00L making 5.25 knots, a reasonable cruise speed motor sailing and understated reaching in a good breeze (although I normall plan at 4.5 knots), I would be at the Brisons by 22:45 local with c 8 miles to run to the Runnel Stone with a following tide, so I would be there about 01:15 on Tuesday vs a target latest time of HWD +5 = 01:00L when heading for Newlyn.

I would then have the option of anchoring off Mousehole or Newlyn around 03:15 for some sleep before heading further east or, particulalry if bad weather looked likely, continuing on to round The Lizard. I probably would not carry the tide round so would be fighting it for an hour or two to get into Church or Parn Voose Coves for a few hours some sleep or I could soldier on until the tided turns east at about 09:30 then head up to the Fal estuary for St Mawes or The Truro River or further east to Portmellon, Polkerris or Fowey.  With the current forecast of strong or very strong winds setting in on Wednesday / Thursday the Truro River or Fowey are favourites.

Replanning - again.

Typical; less than 2 hours after recalculating for the new start date we find my wife needs transport to Hospital on Friday and again next week due to complications after her new knee. Normally I'd wait before recalculating, especially as 2 out of 3 forecasts are showing strong winds in a weeks time but I want to know if it will be practical to leave straight after her hospital appointment, if she is OK, and more particulalry what happens if the lock gate is not fixed and I am restricted to leaving during free flow. Also I have nothing better to do. 

This time I am leaving the previous calculations in case I am delayed until the 15th when the numbers above would again be good - and that is probably the last date I would bother going sailing.

The first part is easy, free flow on Thursday the 4th is from 02:22 to 04:22 & 14:47 to 16:47. If the hospital appointment runs to time I might just be able to get the 11:42 train arriving Milford at 17:31, allowing only one shopping trip for supplies I should be able to get to bed by 09:30 to leave at 04:00 direct from the marina. I'll do the calculations for that but more realistically I would go down on Wednesday, move to Dale on Thursday and leave early Friday. If the numbers work......

 Date   ¦   HW Dover    ¦  1st HW  ¦  LW   ¦    HW

        ¦               ¦ Plymouth ¦  Fal  ¦  Padstow

Thu 4th ¦ 09:30 & 21:50 ¦

Fri 5th ¦ 10:10 & 22:40 ¦  04:50   ¦ 10:40 ¦ 16:50 6.6m

Sat 6th ¦ 11:00 & 23:20 ¦  05:40   ¦ 11:30 ¦ 17:30 7.0m

Sun 7th ¦ 11:30 & 00:00 ¦  06:20   ¦ 12:20 ¦ 18:10 7.4m

Mon 8th ¦ 12:10         ¦  07:00   ¦ 13:00 ¦ 18:50 7.7m

Tue 9th ¦ 00:30 & 12:30 ¦  07:40   ¦ 13:40 ¦ 19:30 7.8m

An added complication with the current forecast is that at some point the wind might turn light and possibly to the SW or cyclonic in which case The Scillies, Padstow (arrival close to HW and in daylight is possible at 5 knots on any day) or St Ives come into play but I'll ignore that and get the navigation software to do the numbers at two speeds, it is at times like these where automation makes some scenario planning practical. 

• Leaving on the Thursday the 5th during free flow addition time is required to get the 4 miles from the marina to Thorn Rock. 
• Tuesday the 9th is a spring tide, especially close to that, timing around Land's End (and The Lizard) and the weather becomes even more important, especially in a north westerly that would be wind against an adverse tide approaching The Brisons.
• The tide turns adverse off The Lizard at HW Plymouth + 3 hours
• I copy the tables shown here and other relevant data to my calendar so they are available on all my devices when I don't have a data connection and some I print out. It is not really necessary but it saves looking up the data on route or writing it all up in the log - which I subsequently probably would not be able to read due to my hand writing. It is also incontrovertible proof that I have complied with SOLAS requirements 😏 

Update: The lock gate was quickly fixed so Thursday was replanned locking out at the first exit time 2 hours after free flow and at a reduced average speed of 5.0 knots so as not to be early at the Brisons.

Day     Knts ¦ Leave ¦  Brisons     ¦ Runnel¦   Lizard 

                     ¦ (Earliest)   ¦ Stone ¦(Tide adverse)

Thu 4th 5.00 ¦ 05:50 ¦ 00:13(23:50) ¦ 01:00 ¦ 04:23(07:50)

        4.25 ¦ 04:00 ¦ 02:04(23:50) ¦ 03:00 ¦ 07:00(07:50) 

Fri 5th 5.25 ¦ 07:00 ¦ 00:27(00:40) ¦ 03:19 ¦ 06:33(08:40)

        4.25 ¦ 03:00 ¦ 02:04(00:40) ¦ 04:18 ¦ 08:11(08:40)

Sat 6th 5.25 ¦ 07:00 ¦ 01:19(01:20) ¦ 03:18 ¦ 06:37(09:20)

        4.25 ¦ 03:00 ¦ 01:57(01:20) ¦ 04:29 ¦ 08:16(09:20)

Sun 7th 5.25 ¦ 08:00 ¦ 02:20(02:00) ¦ 04:22 ¦ 07:35(10:00)

        4.25 ¦ 03:30 ¦ 02:21(02:00) ¦ 05:02 ¦ 08:46(10:00)

Mon 8th 5.25 ¦ 08:30 ¦ 02:42(02:30) ¦ 04:50 ¦ 08:02(10:40)

        4.25 ¦ 03:45 ¦ 02:40(02:30) ¦ 05:32 ¦ 09:16(10:40)

Clearly times are indicative and I would leave rather earlier if estimating 5.25 knots and would probably leave a little later than 03:00 and make up some time under engine if necessary to carry the tide round the Lizard. A little late at the Brisons would be more comfortable especially in a brisk wind when it would be best to stay further offshore where it could get rough with an adverse tide.

Autumn cruise.

The earliest date I had pencilled in to start my next cruise was August 28th, if this forecast is correct that is not going to happen, nor I suspect the more likely departure date I had in mind of the 30th.

ECMWF forecast for the 28th August. The remains of Hurricane
Erin. Earlier runs had shown it heading for Greenland. Large and
slow moving, if this pans out it could easily mean there will be no
window long enough for any more sailing this year 😡😡😡😡

Update Wednesday a.m. Now this is better, although the GFS is completely different and the UKMO somewhere in between on the 26th (as far as it goes):

ECMWF for the 28th.

GFS and ECMWF for the 29th.

Update Wednesday p.m.

There is a good analysis on the Met Office "Deep Dive" just published (on Wednesday) that also explains why the projection has changed in the last couple of days and is likely to keep changing (as it has done again on Thursday morning). Unfortunately the change may also predict the end of summer.

Ready to go