2025 Sept 7th, Day 4 - Cruise abandoned.

Once I gave up on Land's End on day one I thought it would come to this, but looking at the various forecasts I could have got shuck for a long time on the south coast, instead of having the option of returning on Monday in what promises to be reasonable, even good, sailing weather.

The ECMWF and GFS models both show moderate to strong winds for the next 10 days with only short breaks, getting round Land's End to Newlyn would be a struggle with likely poor conditions there, added to that the met office "Long range" forecast has got progressively worse over the last 10 days and although there may be some spells of better weather it is unlikely I would get enough sailing in to justify spending a lot of time here, or else where, waiting for it.

ECMWF and GFS forecasts for next Sunday

Tomorrow looks better and is the longest window this week for a trip back to Milford and the forecast can be expected to be reasonably reliable a day out.

UKMO and ECMWF for Monday

Lands End to St Davids Head including the Bristol Channel - Strong wind warning [from 07:00 today]

24 hour forecast: Southeast veering southwest 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first, then veering west 3 or 4 later. Moderate or rough in west, slight or moderate in east. Rain at first, then thundery showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor at first.

Outlook for the following 24 hours: Westerly 3 or 4, backing southwesterly 4 or 5, then backing southerly 5 or 6 later in west. Moderate in west, smooth or slight in east. Showers, thundery at first. Good, occasionally moderate at first.

The harbour gate will be open tomorrow morning from c 04:32 until c 08:32 with 6m of water from 05:00, an 05:00 departure would mean fighting the last of the flood down the estuary and it would be dark, it is well lit so not a problem and there is much to be said for going out on a rising tide but, if the weather is kind I may go out at about 17:30 this afternoon and go to an anchorage, I could then make a quick getaway in the morning with an outside chance of making free flow into Milford.

Free flow through the lock into Milford marina ends at 19:30 so I'll probably not make that, especially if leaving from Padstow; rather than wait and faff around locking through in the dark I'll probably go into Dale anchorage, sort the boat out and go in between 07:00 and 08:00 on Tuesday in time to get a train home arriving at sensible time. Then back down by car to start winterisation, service the engine and get at least a coupe of loads of stuff home before lifting out on October 22nd.