Autumn cruise.

The earliest date I had pencilled in to start my next cruise was August 28th, if this forecast is correct that is not going to happen, nor I suspect the more likely departure date I had in mind of the 30th.

ECMWF forecast for the 28th August. The remains of Hurricane
Erin. Earlier runs had shown it heading for Greenland. Large and
slow moving, if this pans out it could easily mean there will be no
window long enough for any more sailing this year 😡😡😡😡

Update Wednesday a.m. Now this is better, although the GFS is completely different and the UKMO somewhere in between on the 26th (as far as it goes):

ECMWF for the 28th.

GFS and ECMWF for the 29th.

Update Wednesday p.m.

There is a good analysis on the Met Office "Deep Dive" just published (on Wednesday) that also explains why the projection has changed in the last couple of days and is likely to keep changing (as it has done again on Thursday morning). Unfortunately the change may also predict the end of summer.

Ready to go