Next Week???

Models are starting to look better with winds in the right direct but light and some models vary on temperature from cold to chilly overnight.

From Predictwind

Surprisingly good agreement between the EMWF and GFS
for the 21st but a big change from yesterdays.

AI forecasting has been in development for some time, as I understand it most are developments from the traditional "analogue" method that looks for weather patterns in the past that mirror recent history and projects from there, it has generally been particularly useful for medium and long term forecasting.

The ECMWF AI model shows the favourable but light winds
lasting for over a week, this for Thursday 26th March. Calm
seas😊, temps with overcast skys look reasonable for the time
 of year at 40 - 50F 😊, but probably a lot of motoring 😒.

Time will tell, and I am sure it forecasts will change daily, probably significantly until early next week.

From the Met Offices 10 day trend on Wednesday 11th before
the latest model runs. https://youtu.be/CGs2tZE6EoI 

Thursday 19th is looking particularly good at the moment but
loading the boat on Tuesday would be a pain if the forecast for Rain
and wind are correct.

The ECMWF AI model agrees.

Friday 13th

Looking good for Thursday!

With that much east in the wind it looks like the start will be from Sandy Haven Bay rather than Dale. Then a quick sail on a reach across St Georges Channel. It will be an early start, with an easterly almost the last thing I want is wind against a near spring tide past The Smalls, another good reason to move out of Milford on Wednesday, free flow does not start until 04:22 and there will be a strong adverse tide until St Anne's head. Fingers crossed.