Next Week???

Models are suddenly starting to look better with winds in the right direction but light and some models vary on temperature from cold to chilly overnight.

From Predictwind (The UK model is not shown this far out).

PredictWind have two proprietary physical models and one AI model in Beta:

• PGW - Uses the Australian CCAM model with the same start conditions as the GFS.
• PWE - As PGW but using the ECMWF initial conditions.
• PWAi - An AI model combing the ECMWF Hi-res, ECMWF  AI (AIFS) and others.

Surprisingly good agreement between the ECMWF and GFS
for the 21st but a big change from yesterdays.

AI forecasting has been in development for some time, as I understand it from research last year most are developments from the traditional "analogue" method that looks for weather patterns in the past that mirror recent history and projects from there, the "manual" analogue method has generally been used for medium and long term forecasting.

The ECMWF AI model shows the favourable but light winds
lasting for over a week, this for Thursday 26th March. Calm
seas😊, temps with overcast skys look reasonable for the time
 of year at 40 - 50F 😊, but probably a lot of motoring 😒.

Time will tell, and I am sure the forecasts will change daily, probably significantly until early next week.

From the Met Offices 10 day trend on Wednesday 11th before
the latest model runs. https://youtu.be/CGs2tZE6EoI 

Thursday 19th is looking particularly good at the moment but
loading the boat on Tuesday would be a pain if the forecast for Rain
and wind are correct.

The ECMWF AI model agrees.

Friday 13th

Looking good for Thursday! Brisker winds but perfectly sailable,
especially on a nice reach.

With that much east in the wind it looks like the start will be from Sandy Haven Bay rather than Dale. Then a quick sail on a reach across St Georges Channel. It will be an early start, with an easterly almost the last thing I want is wind against a near spring tide past The Smalls, another good reason to move out of Milford on Wednesday, free flow does not start until 04:22 and there will be a strong adverse tide until St Anne's head. Fingers crossed.

Friday evening

Good agreement between the 6 models for 6 days out and air
temps could reach 60F on Wednesday and Thursday.

Decision time is Sunday to load the car, 2 days to deliver and load cloths, stores etc. an early train to Milford on Wednesday to leave for the anchorage during free flow around 17:00 that evening. 

Saturday morning

PredictWind's PGW coming into line, The GFS, as is not uncommon
a bit adrift from the others, especially on gusts but not at this stage a worry.
if the ECMWF is correct it looks like the cruising chute will be needed.

All looking good, it is rare to see 10 models so consistent this far out, and it is not just the wind speed, the synoptic charts also agree over a wide area. The Met Éireann, forecast for the next month and the extended predictions for April through June are both encouraging.

UKMO global model and the ECMWF. The rest of the models except
the PWE are in close agreement.

 I better start packing!

Sunday

Still looking good 😊

A big advantage of computerised navigation programs that take account of tides is that it is easy to do some planning in advance. As mentioned in my piece on passage making up the west coast there are few useful tidal diamonds from Milford to The Smalls so I have a way point on the NE corner of the "Off Smalls" TSS and have the software do some calculations with different start times and speeds, in a few minutes I build up this table for the Course to Steer to the Coningbeg buoy (see chart below); much easier at home than bobbing around in a choppy sea with shipping bearing down on you as they exit or enter the TSS.

A day before an extreme spring tides.

With a south going quartering tide from about 11:00 the CTS is not that sensitive to speed through the water, the start time has more impact but only by about 10 degrees over a 2 hour spread and with the tide even that could be corrected fairly late without going far out of my way. 283 degrees is likely to be on the money. With the autohelm on a compass course I'll average close to that, if I decide to use the wind vane steering or the autohelm set to wind direction I would be lucky to be within 5 or 10 degrees so I may need to replan around midday and in both cases I'll need to keep an eye on the cross track error, the Taskar TSS will be good for that as well as a potential obstacle to be avoided.

The likely track from the TSS passing there at 07:00 making 4.5 knots.
I'll need to watch out for the Tuskar TSS.