Monday, June 10, 2024

2024 June 10th Day 73, going west about tomorrow and it is going to be hard going.

I have checked 6 different weather models, all agree that the east coast will have wind with east in them from Thursday for quite a while.

The UK model for Sunday.
A strong easterly on Thursday or Friday would keep me at Wick or Peterhead for a day or three, anchorages would likely be closed to me until at least Thursday next week and I would have to do long overnight legs, sometimes with headwinds with expensive stays in marinas in between.

So it’s west about.

That presents more problems; strong winds from uncertain directions and rough seas. The inshore forecast from 07:00 Tuesday is:

Cape Wrath to Rattray Head including Orkney - Strong wind warning

Northwest 4 to 6. Moderate or rough becoming slight or moderate. Showers. Good, occasionally moderate.

Update: the 12:00 forecast is somewhat better for Tuesday afternoon:

Northwesterly 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first in east. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough at first in north and east. Showers. Good.

Doable to get to Loch Eriboll but very uncomfortable. As of yesterday that meant leaving Wednesday, but now we see:

UK Met Office for Wednesday.
All of the other models show even more west in the wind, and it’s over 40 miles from Hoy Mouth, much of it could be a beat. But this is OK for rounding Cape Wrath.

Thursday & Friday complicate matters further , models differ but there could be strong easterlies.

UKMet Office model for Thursday.

UK model for Friday. One full barb on the
arrow equals 10 knots.Gusts will be higher.

So, unless things change on this evening’s forecast I’ll need to bight the bullet and head for Eriboll tomorrow, nip round Cape Wrath on Wednesday or Thursday, then scoot down the west coast in the shelter of the mainland and/or hole up somewhere until the weather improves.

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