2025 5th April, Days 4 - 7 Howth.

It has been a frustrating time in Howth with the wind alternating between nothing and F6 or above but with no window long enough to move on, but at least it was dry most of the time. Sunday will be the first opportunity although it could be bumpy at times, especially leaving.

For a change on Saturday the gas ran out during morning coffee making rather than when cooking something in the oven. And even more unusually I was in a marina and the local chandlery had Campinggaz 907 bottles in stock, now with 3 full bottles on board I should have enough for the rest of the trip although I will replace empty ones when possible just in case.

I  have finished all of the the fresh meat I started with so went to the convenience store that had plenty yesterday to find no diced beef and no chicken, except in huge family packs. I had to make do with some burgers and mince. I also went to the butchers and got a couple of chicken breasts which, not being prepacked, will need using up soon.

Click here for the next leg north

2025 2nd April Day 3 - ?, Weather and Options, Part 2,

Update Thursday.

Thursday was previously in what is now Part 1. Click here to skip to the next post.

Some divergence between the models for Sunday , if the UKMO is correct it could be rather more  blowy than I would like until lunch time. You never know this might be what happens.

ECMWF & UKMO models for early Sunday.

Lunch time Sunday

Sunday evening.

A bigger divergence on Monday, if the UKMO is correct 

it could get a bit rough in the North Channel, especially when 

the tide turns south at around 14:30.

The ECMWF is backing off on the strong winds on Friday week with the stronger winds further to the NW, but with the stable weather pattern briefly breaking down (see the met office video above) it is anyone's guess what will happen,

Update Friday morning:

Models still in agreement and minimal change thru Sunday lunch time.

Better agreement than previously on Sunday evening favouring
the ECMWFs previous forecast - not untypical, beyond 3 days
the ECMWF tends to be better than the UKMO with the latter
 better short term. If this happened exactly (unlikely) I would
be motoring from c 19:00 (PredictWind interpolates between the
forecast points, for the UKMO model they are one hour apart
for 2 days then every 3 hours). I suspect close to land it would be
rather earlier which at least would keep the average up.

Having nothing better to do with my time I spend 10 minutes
recalculating using 4.5 knots as a conservative speed under sail
given the predicted wind and 5.2 knots from Skulmartin under
engine in a slightly choppy sea. Under this scenario I would be in
my bunk around midnight local time and I suspect somewhat earlier
making an early start on Monday a good proposition.

Again good agreement for Monday lunch time, IF this happened I
would be making good speed under the cruising chute or spinnaker.

Which would be just as well as by late evening the wind is
likely to be gone, the good news is that with a southerly wind
much of the day Machrihanish Bay comes into play if going has
been slow but if I could make 4.5 knots and leave at 06:00L it
would be unnecessary as I could just get to Ardminish in daylight.

The ECMWF has given up on strong winds for Friday and both
models are predicting lots of light fluky winds through next
week. Again I have heard that before! But it is in line with the
Met Office 10 day look ahead in the video referenced in the
part 1 of this post.

The above is for Wednesday showing an anti-cyclone (high) stuck over UK
which hopefully will at least give seasonally warm temperatures. 

I await the next few download with baited breath!

Friday pm.

It is raining so a bit more planning rather than a site seeing trip into Dublin.

Revised outline plan, an extra day or two resting and going up
the sound of Jura in light weather would not be a problem and
could enable a visit to Coll on route to Barra.

The sound of Luing (or the Sound of Islay) is the key to getting out of the Sound of Jura as tides run up to 5 knots at neaps and 7 knots as springs. If planning to make for the Sound of Mull from Fladda (Luing narrows) there are c 13 miles to go to Duart Point and another 7 to the entrance of Loch Aline so you can't leave too late in the tide or it will turn foul before you get there.

Tides start N and W through Dorus Mor (if coming from Crinan) and N through the Sound of Luing at HW Dover - 01:00 on springs and – 0:15 at neaps. 

The 11th is 4 days after neaps, so approx. Dover – 0:38. slack for c 40 mins

HW Dover April 2025

10th 11:00 turning N at 10:22

11th 11:40 turning N at 11:02

12th 12:10 turning N at 11:42

If at Gallanach Bay (Crinan) leave 30 minutes before, otherwise be off Sgeir na Maoile no earlier than the same time.

Tide turns adverse off Duart c 18:00 on the 11th.

Saturday update.

Not a great deal of change in the forecast and good agreement between the models through Wednesday, it looks like very slow going or the engine from Tuesday and possibly on Monday. 

Leaving time on Sunday.

Inshore forecast for Sunday from the UKMO from Sunday 12:00Z:

Lough Foyle to Carlingford Lough 

Outlook for the following 24 hours: East or southeast 3 to 5, becoming variable 2 to 4 for a time at first. Smooth or slight, occasionally moderate at first. Fair. Good.

---

Mull of Galloway to Mull of Kintyre including the Firth of Clyde and North Channel

Outlook for the following 24 hours: Easterly or southeasterly 3 to 5 in North Channel, otherwise variable 2 to 4. Smooth or slight, occasionally moderate at first in North Channel. Fair. Good.

And Met Éireann (for the whole of Ireland):

Outlook for a further 24 hours until 06:00, Monday 07 April 2025

Fresh east to southeast winds decreasing moderate to fresh on Sunday morning and decreasing light to moderate in the evening. Fair apart from a little drizzle in the southwest.

Forecast issued at: 06:00, Saturday 05 April 2025

So it looks like a go for tomorrow morning although it could be rather bumpy getting out past Irelands Eye, to be confirmed this evening.

Now it's the UKMO model suggesting strong winds on Friday

Click here for the next post.

2025 2nd April Day 3 - ?, Weather and Options, Part 1

Wednesday 3rd.

Contrary to my posts on here and on Facebook I have shown great restraint and there is no big whinge but if you are inclined, weather anoraks on, this is intended to get my thoughts together, to keep track of trends and to kill some time. It’s probably mainly of interest to new and aspiring yachties. 

Click here to jump to the action.

Written in several stages as I go through the planning process.

Lunch time:

Very unusually all of the models are consistent into next week, differing only in local details mainly waves on the isobars around the high pressure area, unfortunately the detail matters to me and they will almost certainly change!

The ECMWF and UKMO models for lunch time on Sunday
the GFS, Spire and Predictwind's PWG models are very similar
only Predict wind's PWE is different and not around UK, it
shows a second Atlantic low south of Greenland.

Close predictions from the ECMWF and UKMO for Sunday
lunchtime 

Winds start getting light on Monday evening and very light on Tuesday and turning to the North in places so a dash north as soon as the weather permits is the preferred option.

So the draft plan is to leave early Sunday but where too? The only viable options given the wind direction are likely to be Ardglass, Bangor or Larne / Brown's Bay. Ardglass gives the chance of more sleep but if the wind is stronger than forecast the entrance can be tricky and it is not that far north. The others are long legs and dependant on the getting through or bi-passing Donaghadee / Copeland Sound at the entrance to Belfast Lough. From my piece "Passage Making: The West Coast"

"The admiralty chart notes that "Only power-driven vessels with local knowledge and a speed of at least 10 knots should use the sound against the stream". Note also that the tide can switch very quickly, I have sneaked through north bound with the last of the favourable tide at Foreland Point and then had 2 knots against off Carn Point three-quarters of a mile further on."

Tides run strong north from Strangford but there is not a lot to be done about that unless the arrival at Donaghadee is towards the end of the ebb (North of Dundalk the ebb runs north).

The tide turns N in the Sound @ HW Dover -01:15 and turns S @ HW Dover + 04:45

On Sunday

HW Dover is at 06:20 and 19:00

So a favourable tide from 05:05 till 11:05 & 17:45 till 23:45 and about 50 minutes later on Monday.

I have been through The Sound a number of times and am OK going through in the dark, especially a day from neaps. Care is required at all times and without local knowledge going through singlehanded on a spring tide in the dark could be interesting if the GPS failed at the wrong moment.

I already had a route planned from Howth to Bangor from when I was last in Howth in 2023 (link opens in new window), although it needed a few tweaks to avoid Howth Sound at night which I have not been through before and to go outside Lambay Island - inside has loads of pot buoys.   This shows Bangor is feasible but at 4 knots is a very long day at 22 hours:

Seapro timings UCT, GMT in old non PC money.
PL = Port Lateral Buoy, NC = North Cardinal, etc.

Browns Bay would also be possible but Bangor gives a chance of a few hours sleep before heading further north, especially if I can make better than 4 knots which I should do. The model shows that at 4.5 knots I arrive at 23:34L, at 5 knots 21:53L and at an unlikely but possible 5.5 knots at 20:27L, probably +/- 30 minutes given it will be almost on neaps. In 2023 I took 19 hours.

Life is so much easier having the computer to do these calcs than working it out on paper, I doubt I would have done more than one or two manual sets of calcs.

Now I have to see if Bangor, across the north Channel to Gigha is feasible or if a short hop to Browns Browns Bay is in order. Unfortunately places further north on the Irish coast such as Red Bay are unlikely to be tenable after prolonged easterly winds.

Time for a break to ease my back and get a shower.

Late Afternoon:

Diesel replenished so in dire straights I have a range of well over 300 miles with a reserve. Back to planning.

From Bangor the tide runs north from about 09:00, so time for a reasonable amount of sleep if I start c 08:00 it is an easy trip to Browns Bay but possible issues later with little or no wind. An option to test is a direct route across the North Channel from Bangor, something I have not done, although I did the reverse in May 2022 and June 2024 (links open in a new window), both were very tiring. 

The models all predict very favourable S - SE winds on Monday (I have heard that before!) but dying away starting in the east in the early evening, if that happened I would be under engine making c 5 knots at most economic speed which might help the average speed. Not something worth factoring in 5 days ahead but something to consider on the day.

Machrihanish bay (the Green anchor)
might be an option.

Unfortunately an 08:00 start from Bangor making 4 knots would not get me to Gigha until midnight and the anchorages I have used are not that easy to get into and are unlit. Ardminish Bay is lit and should be practical. To make it in daylight I would need to leave at 07:00 and make 4.5 knots or more realistically leave earlier and / or use the engine to make >= 5 knots for at least part of the way. At 5 knots leaving at 08:00 I would arrive at approximately 19:00.

A better alterative if the sea is calm, which it might well be after easterly winds, would be to anchor in Machrihanish Bay, 11 miles north of the south point of the Mull of Kyntire which at 4 knots I could get to at dusk. A good option but one that I can't rely on with a decision to anchor there only possible when close by.

[2 tables added Thursday]

08:00L start at 4 knts.

The earlier the start the better for the tide around the Mull
of Kintyre but after a long day on Sunday it is best to be
realistic and assume a sensible start time, if I'm awake I'll
go earlier. Times UTC.

A well lit alternate that I am quite familiar with is Port Ellen on Islay or the near by anchorage.

Route plan to Port Ellen at 4 knts starting at 07:00 UTC.

I'll have to decide this on the day, depending on the then forecast and how tired I am but it is a good starting point and all options will work a day later, probably starting an hour later.

Once I am at Gigha, Islay or Machrihanish light winds are of less concern as I can while away the days making short hops visiting some new places, as long as I am somewhere safe if the promised strong winds arrive at the end of the week, a dash to Loch Aline on the Sound of Mull is probably favourite.

If the |ECMWF is correct I'll need to be somewhere safe by Friday
week. The GFS disagrees and the UKMO does not release info
that far ahead.

Will be updated through the week.

Update Wednesday evening. 

Weather anoraks or anyone particularly interested in the weather next week and for later in April this Met office video may be of interest. https://youtu.be/KjHVYPms76g?si=5ORMcvdZACQXM4ZT 

This was getting very long so I split it into two, click here for part two and here to skip the prognostications. 

2025 1st April, Day 3 to Howth.

Needing sleep and with the tide setting north at around 07:30 I did not set the alarm and was awake about then, tidied up, reviewed the weather - not good for the rest of the week, but I will leave the whinge for a separate post on the weather so it can be skipped and left at 08:40.

Some wind set in as I was taking the video in the previous post and I was away shortly after in a nice but again chilly SE wind, mainly around 10 knots over the ground (less over the water with the strong tide) but occasionally reaching F5 and I had a quick passage to the north entrance to Dublin Bay.

The wind died away as I reached the main shipping channel and for once there was no traffic although the fast ferry was not too far away, so not wanting to hang around in the shipping channel and less than 4 miles from Howth I put the engine on and got the sails in for an orderly entrance to Howth at high water.

Ireland's Eye guarding Howth Sound, Howth marina out
of picture left.

Sunset close to low water 1 day after the spring tide.

Low water 2 days after the spring tide.

26.4 miles in 4:30.

Note that videos (several here) only play in Flikr, click on the image.

Click here for my likely next steps.

2025 30-31st March, Days 1 & 2 to Dale and Wicklow.

I left on Sunday evening during free flow (for convenience, it turns out the lock gates were fixed but for some reason I was not on the appropriate email list and no one thought to put a follow up note on the Facebook post to say it was fixed) with a promise from the models for a week of good weather and helpful winds. The first prophesy still looks correct but the wind forecast changed for the worst that evening and at the time of writing (Tuesday pm) still looks problematic, more of which later.

A present but cool trip to anchor off Dale for an early start next morning.

To Dale

Dale anchorage, later in the season there would

be quite a few boats anchored here when the

wind is from the west.

With the highest, and lowest, tides of the year I anchored a bit further out than usual as the forecast, which was wrong again, said the wind would turn easterly, light but enough to swing me into shallower water.

I was up and away at 04:15 with no wind and a smooth sea. Butting out against the tide was a bit slow but the tide turns westerly off St Anne's Head well before high water in The Haven.

I over estimated how quickly the west doing tide increases in strength and was half an hour late to my waypoint off of South Bishops but things then speeded up in a big way:

Making 5 knots through the water and almost 12 over the
ground thanks to the highest tide of the year.

Unfortunately none of the promised wind arrived and it was an 18 hour motor.

Despite the curved track I did not change course by
more than 5 degrees from passing the S Bishop Lt
west of St David's Head until north of the Arklow
bank a few miles short of Wicklow.

Sunset over Arklow Bank and its wind farm.

Anchoring off Wicklow was risking a disturbed night and a possible early exit as there is no shelter from the easterly wind forecast for the area but the evening download of the main models suggested a wind slightly south of east on this bit of coast so I opted for some needed sleep and was lucky, there was little or no wind and I had a quite night and 6 or 7 hours of rather broken sleep, it being particularly cold and I could not get my feet warm.

Wicklow anchorage in the morning.

Contrary to the forecast yesterday, quite a bit of wind is coming, and on Wednesday or Thursday likely from the NE - realistically I can’t get to Ardglass before it arrives and there are no anchorages I would want to be in with a F6 SE backing NE so if the forecasts are the same in the morning I will sail to Howth just N of Dublin in a promised fresh breeze and stay in the Marina, probably till Friday.

96 GPS miles in 18 hours from Dale. Sunny most of the way, even warm at times with a spot of sun bathing but cold early and late,

Click here for Wicklow to Howth.

2025, 18 - 28th March. Ready for sea but when can I leave?

I made a quick trip down to ready the boat for sea in case I decide to leave at relatively short notice, given the medium range forecast, that could be necessary.

"Confidence is lower than normal, but blocked or slow-moving weather patterns are most probable for the first half of April. This can lead to slow-moving areas of low and high pressure and, depending on their location..." - UKMO19/3/2025.

The ECMWF and GFS models are quite far apart, both show a low to the NE but the rest of the pattern is rather different. Neither look that good around the 29th (as far out as I can easily get copies of the models) and I am sure both will change, but no one knows how.

The ECMWF model for midday Sat 29th via Predictwind. A brisk
north westerly is not what I want!

The GFS model for the same time.

The tide is best for heading north from the 30th till the 3rd or 4th with the 2nd optimal, starting at 06:00 from Dale to allow for reasonable sleep before what could be a long day to Wiklow or Dublin. Earlier gives a bit more tide but earlier starts and the 31st has the highest tide of the year which could make for very lumpy seas wind against tide. 

I will need to make a decision 3 or 4 days before departure, one to take bedding, cloths and fresh food to the boat, one to bring the car home and a third to return by train and get out of the marina to overnight at anchor off Dale for an early start next day. 

Leaving direct from Milford means leaving at least an hour earlier and a lock gate at Milford Marina is currently (Thursday 20th) broken with no date for repair, so I can only get out in the two hours before high water, on the 2nd this would be from 07:35 delaying me by about 3 hours and loosing half a tide so I might need an extra days notice to get down earlier and spend a day at anchor.

As is usually the case, I'll have to wait and see and hope that I'll not be delayed till the next favourable tide in the middle of April.

Update 22 March.

Great 😠😠. The GFS is showing poor weather for next weekend but the more reliable ECMWF looks more promising, although I don't like the look of the low out to the northwest.

Its a long way off, but the ECMWF is currently showing a couple
of days of near ideal conditions for heading north on
Sunday the 30th.

So I went to confirm train times for Saturday to find engineering work is taking place between Didcot Parkway and Chippenham / Bristol Parkway, closing all lines. There is further disruption on Chilton railways. A bus replacement service is operating but it would take for ever and the system will not even give me a price. The only alternative route is via Birmingham on slow trains, a very long trip not arriving until evening and costing more than double the normal fare.

So, if the weather still looks good early next week it will be down to Milford on Wednesday evening after a Chiropractic appointment, home on Thursday and back by rail on Friday for very early start on Sunday if the forecast holds, a day before the very high tides so care will be needed. It looks like my trip down on the 18th was unnecessary as I'll have time on Saturday.

An aggressive plan to get to Tobermory, taking full account of tides,
I'm sure it will change but a good starting point and I have nothing
else to do whilst waiting. A few days delay at any point will make
for fewer early starts.

Friday 28th March

On board and ready to go but the weather is not cooperating:

St Davids Head to Great Orme Head, including St Georges Channel - Strong wind warning

24 hour forecast: Westerly or northwesterly 4 or 5, backing westerly or southwesterly 2 to 4, increasing 6 to gale 8. Slight or moderate. Occasional rain or drizzle later. Good, occasionally moderate later.

Outlook for the following 24 hours: Southwesterly 4 to 6, veering westerly or northwesterly 3 to 5, becoming variable 2 or 3 later. Slight or moderate. Rain or drizzle for a time at first. Moderate or poor, becoming good.

I guess I’ll be moving to Dale on Sunday evening to head out on Monday.

And he is Off! Click here for the first couple of days to Wicklow in Ireland