The weather is not cooperating, again. Strongish winds have been forecast for later today (Sunday) for some time but last night stronger winds in the late afternoon and evening on Monday came up on the UK model with a lot more on Wednesday. In both cases the headline numbers were not terrifically high and not a problem off the wind but the gust maps showed it would be very variable with gusts to 30+ knots. And coming late in the day would make getting into Stornoway town marina a challenge as the avenues are quite tight.
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The UKMO gust map on Sunday morning for 17:00 on Monday
with a little more later. |
The Inshore waters forecast as at Sunday 07:00 reflects this, it is always best to add one force for gusts which brings it into line with the models:
The Minch - Strong wind warning
24 hour forecast: Northeast, veering east later, 3 to 5, increasing 6 for a time. Smooth or slight, occasionally moderate. Mainly fair. Good, occasionally poor at first.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: East, backing northeast, 3 to 5. Smooth or slight, occasionally moderate at first in far north and south. Fair. Good occasionally moderate.
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By Sunday morning the models had changed again for
Tuesday with lighter winds in the evening. |
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Wednesday still looked rather windy although again the ecmwf
was not as bad. |
The obvious thing to do would be to wait until Tuesday but the models could easily change again and for the last few days and in the models for Monday and Wednesday the wind increases significantly in the late afternoon and evening - last evening it was blowing a good F5, possibly a tad more.
From here to Stromness it is a 13 - 14 hour run at 4 knots, although with the forecast wind I should do more, that would potentially have me arriving as the wind would likely be increasing if not later.
The plan is therefore to shorten the distance somewhat for the crossing of The Minch, if the forecasts does not change significantly I will move south tomorrow (Monday), either to Loch Ned which has good shelter although you do have to find a spot between moorings, or preferably, if I can beat the tide around Stoer Head, Loch Roe which would avoid bumpy seas I have often found between Loch Ned and Stoer Head at the start of the crossing to Storonoway.
Loch Ned is 20 NM and the easiest, most sheltered run. Loch Roe 28 NM with Stoer Head to contend with if it is windy. I'll make a decision on which when I have the morning forecasts and am past Handa Island, with the option of diverting to Loch Ned at any time until just short of Stoer Head.
The run to Stornoway @ 4 knots will be reduced from the 13 hours from Loch Inchard to 9 hours from Loch Roe or 10:30 from Loch Ned which should give me plenty of time to get to Stornoway on Tuesday before weather arrives and if that looks dodgy I can stay put.
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