2025, May 27th, Day 59 Stornoway to ?

Tuesday am.

It is still very breezy at 09:00 but the forecast and outlook are improving. The 07:00 inshore forecast:

The Minch - Strong wind warning

24 hour forecast: West or southwest 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough near entrances. Showers, squally at first. Good, occasionally poor at first.

Outlook for the following 24 hours: West 4 or 5, backing southwest 3 or 4, then south or southeast 4 to 6 later. Slight or moderate, occasionally smooth in central area. Showers, rain later. Good, becoming moderate or poor later.

"At first" is an undefined term but should be < 6 hours and certainly < 12 hours (after that it would be "Later", and by implication it is < 6 hours or it should just say "becoming") The "Squally" bit is the part I don't like as gust can be severe but I am happy to plan on Loch Shell tonight but I am also thinking about going to the mainland this afternoon or evening. 

At 5 knots, which I should easily achieve under sail, Loch Gairloch is about 7 hours away once clear of the harbour so leaving after lunch I'd be at anchor in time for a good nights sleep before moving further south on Wednesday. With a quicker passage I could also make Portree or the anchorages in Rassay narrows in daylight (the anchorages are unlit although not difficult).

That just might be advantageous as the UK and European models are coming into agreement about the winds on Thursday and they are both suggesting that the stronger winds will be further south perhaps South of Mull according to the ECMWF and not as strong as on yesterdays models.

UKMO and ECMWF 03:00 runs this morning showing the
prediction for 13:00

It is far to close to call but if the ecmwf is correct, and especially if both show a drift further south it may be possible to get into the sound of Sleat Thursday and to Tobermory on Friday or Saturday before the next depression arrives Saturday evening. Going over today would also avoid the head winds late tomorrow evening.

The most likely destination is Loch Shell leaving there c 08:00 from there tomorrow, to avoid a strong adverse tide earlier.

I will make a decision when I see the domestic forecasts and the next inshore forecast at lunch time, or possibly when I see what the sea state and weather is like when I am 10 miles south of here and in a good position to head for the mainland passing well clear of the Shiant Islands and south of  the Shiant Islands East Bank which is likely to be a bit rougher than in the deeper water.

Update 10:42: Having run the numbers the Witches Pool, Loch Mariveg is a possible alternate to Loch Shell, it is closer to Stornoway and further from the mainland but the extra distance on Wednesday could be balanced by an earlier start; starting v early from Loch Shell means crossing a strong southerly tide going inside the Shiant Islands and that means I could probably get further south from Mariveg earlier in the day giving more options.

If the wind and squalls do not moderate soon then the Witches pool would be favourite as it is less exposed and closer and I could leave here later.

Click here for the off to Witches Pool.