Jumping forward a bit, things changed on Sunday, there is a strong possibility that the lady wife will be going in for a knee replacement shortly, that will not be confirmed until Thursday but if I continue south towards Barra there is every chance I could be stuck there for some time. It is not yet urgent but I need to get south reasonably quickly and preferably to the mainland for the option of a quick return if necessary.
Wednesday 21st.
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| The forecast gets worse, although the worst of it appears to be a little south of here, the Loch Boisdale area is going to get a hammering but the marina is very well sheltered, but I would rather be here! |
Visited today by Tim, another member of the Achilles Facebook group for a long natter.
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| The "town" marina, it feels a bit more roomy than when I was here in 2021, perhaps bad memory or they may have adjusted the fingers after the new marina was built. |
Thursday 22nd
Facebook Post:
Thursday will be a make and mend day, mainly using the (forecast) lovely weather to catch up with the external varnishing I couldn't get done last winter when I did most of the rest.
The weather was not that good, sunny intervals rather than sun all day and a bitter wind but I got the varnishing done, including prep work, all before 9:30 after an early start and it was dry by early afternoon.
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| All back together by late afternoon, outside of washboards, trim to hatch, piece behind instruments and the grove the washboards fit in, all varnished. |
Friday 23rd.
So far the weather has been very good today and reasonably warm. Currently the bad weather looks to be arriving tomorrow and could last through Monday and perhaps Tuesday, then possibly more at the end of the week.
The Minch - Strong wind warning
24 hour forecast: South 3 or 4, increasing 5 or 6, then veering southwest 4 or 5 later. Slight or moderate, occasionally smooth at first. Rain at times. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: South or southwest 4 or 5, veering west 6 to gale 8 later. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough later. Rain or showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
Todays work included taking the engine box apart to access and lubricate the gear box linkage which has been giving problems going from astern to forward, a bit of a problem going onto a berth! Both ends lubricated and it is now much easier to operate and tested alongside it worked fine changing at minimum revs without problem rather than having to push the leaver to high revs (the leaver is both the gear change and throttle, the normal thing on sailing boats).
Cleaning this afternoon, mainly exterior as I have access to fresh water.
Saturday 24th
Raining off and on after quite a lot overnight. I have run out of things I feel like doing and in any case there aren’t many I can do here and in the rain. Probably the only thing today is draining, flushing out and refilling the fresh water tank, I sterilised it over winter and replaced the filter but it is getting a nasty chemical smell, perhaps I have been overdoing the treatment tabs.
The forecast is not encouraging, as expected bad tomorrow, this morning inshore 07:00 forecast:
The Minch - Strong wind warning
24 hour forecast: Southwesterly backing southeasterly later, 3 to 5, veering westerly or northwesterly 6 to gale 8 later. Slight or moderate, occasionally smooth north of skye until later, becoming rough in south. Rain at times. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: Westerly or northwesterly 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9 at first in north. Slight or moderate, but rough, but rough in north and south entrance. Rain at first, then showers. Good, occasionally poor at first.
And Tuesday is also not good with models showing gusts into the mid or high 20s and later in the day on the nose going south. And much the same Wednesday with stronger winds south of Harris thereafter. But I don’t put much credence in anything past Tuesday as it depends on the exact position of a low passing over or close to Stornoway.
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| UKMO prediction for Wednesday as of the 03:00 run Saturday. |
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| And the main models disagree. Hopefully the ECMWF is nearer the mark, although that has some nasty weather coming on Friday and worse on Monday week. |
Sunday 25th a.m.
Last night it looked as though I would be able to escape Stornoway and marina fees late on Monday and, with some help from Tim, an ex Achilles owner who lives here, I decided to move about 6 NM south to a good anchorage at the Camas Thormaid aka the Witches Pool in Loch Mariveg. This mornings inshore and domestic forecasts and the models say that that is now unlikely as I don't fancy 30 knot gusts at any time let alone going through a very narrow channel to get in.
Sunday 25th p.m.
Although the models disagree, the UKMO model shows 30-40 knots from the SW on Friday whilst the ecmwf shows light northerlies. So Tuesday or Wednesday I'll be making a dash to the east side of Skye and as far south as I can get with the wind - I have no intention of going down the Sound of Sleat against 30 knots of wind or anything close to that!
If my wife's forthcoming operation it is a false alarm (unlikely) or the operation date is well in the future, also probably unlikely as the NHS have referred her to a private clinic and things are moving quickly, I can replan my extended cruise, otherwise it will be a dash or a relatively quick trip back to Milford.
Monday 26th
The ukmo and ecmwf now agree on more strong winds coming and that they will be here Thursday rather than Friday but they don’t agree on the direction that may complicate choosing where to shelter. The American GFS disagrees but it often does and is not as reliable as the other two.
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| The UKMO and ECMWF models from this mornings 03:00 run, showing the predicted situation on Thursday afternoon. |
and the inshore forecast from Monday lunch time:
The Minch - Strong wind warning
24 hour forecast: Westerly or southwesterly 4 to 6. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough near entrances. Squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: Westerly or southwesterly 4 to 6, occasionally 3 later in south. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough near entrances. Showers, squally at first. Good, occasionally moderate.
At the time of writing (Monday 15:00) the problem is the squalls with gusts of F7 or above for short periods. The models do however indicate a local slackening tomorrow evening.
The need to get going is a little less urgent as I will get stuck Thursday at pretty much the same place if I leave any of the next three days and the weather looks reasonable on Wednesday, although the wind could be on the nose later in the day so I would end up motoring down past Skye.
If necessary in a day I can make Portree (secure but not the most comfortable place to be in a stong SW wind and best on a mooring rather than at anchor), Plockton or Loch Alsh (the tide is fair for Sky Bridge from 17:00 on Wednesday) but depending on later forecasts I may move (motor?) about 15 miles south to Loch Shell today or tomorrow to shorten the trip to Skye and to get a better angle on the wind Wednesday, in the lee of the land the sea should be ok in F4-6, probably not the case in the middle of The Minch!
On Friday, if the wind has abated, I could get through the Kyle Rhea from 10:00, not ideal if I am close as it would be a late arrival in Tobermory but good if I am further north.
So a reasonable chance of making Tobermory Friday, or Saturday if the wind is still strong and / or the Sound of Sleat is rough on Friday, to refuel if necessary and I should not then need to stop at a place with fuel until Milford.
After another trip to the petrol station this morning for a last 10 litres of diesel I am now fully fuelled, the tank into the feed pipe and 33 litres in cans for 105 - 106 Litres in total. In theory at the current consumption of 1.18 Litres / hour validated over the last 102 hours, I have a range of 480 NM @ 5.4 knots in reasonable conditions but, of course, I need a reserve and fuel sloshing in the tank would stop the last of the fuel getting to the engine but I still have a conservative range of 350 NM, I just hope I don't have to use it, sailing is generally a lot more comfortable and quieter.
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