Wednesday, April 5, 2023

2023 April 5th - Plans C & D

Plan B was to leave Hamble on Wednesday the 12th, but a spanner has been thrown into the works; on Monday a structural problems led to a rail bridge over the Thames and the track between Oxford and Didcot being closed until the end of the month. It is a busy commuter route to London and there is insufficient bus availably to cope. To go to the boat by rail I will have to go via London, but the Bicester - London line has limited capacity and is even more overcrowded than usual with people diverting from Oxford. Trying to get to Southampton and the Hamble on a working day does not look like a good idea. 

Plan C is therefore to revictual the boat on Saturday and I will make the trek via London with weekend train and bus timetables on Sunday or take a coach from Oxford.

That is the extent of the plan, yesterday three models showed favourable winds from Monday or Tuesday for at least 5 days. Now each shows a depression out in the Atlantic developing differently and taking a slightly different route which could give strong adverse winds or benign conditions. 

Forecasts on the 5th April for 07:30 on the 11th April and wind direction and strength off the Isle of Wight. On the 4th all three had been fairly close to the European model below. The ECMWF and GFS diverge further through Saturday, the UK models does not go out that far.

European model, ECMWF  W by S, 4 - 6 knots..
American model, GFS WNW 21-32 knots.
UK Met Office W by S, 13 - 25 knots.

I doubt I'll know when I will leave or were stop over places will be until I am on the boat and perhaps not for several days thereafter.

Update 6th April

Well it looks like plan C is already broken, inside a day the 3 models above have converged and its not good with the depression deepening and heading straight for us and another shaping up to do the same.

ECMWF forecast for Wednesday 12th April

At present it looks like I might get away on the 17th but looking at some of the medium range forecasts I would not be surprised if I am delayed until May πŸ˜’πŸ˜’πŸ˜’πŸ˜’πŸ˜’πŸ˜’

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