Friday, May 13, 2022

Weather doom and gloom, and not just for me.

Well, after bugging out of S Uist last week I have been hiding behind Skye for 8 days, I have had a couple of very nice days with no wind, a couple wet with iffy winds when I went shopping by boat (shopping in Plockton is almost non-existent) and four days of strong winds and rain, on two of those days I have seen more than 45 knots and I only have the anemometer on occasionally and not overnight. Today it is still blowing old boots (F5-7 forecast) and I just measured a 30 knot (F7 almost F8) gust. 

The weather should improve over the weekend, hopefully this afternoon so I can eat ashore this evening, but strong winds and rain will be here again next week, although the models disagree on when.

I have been checking out multiple forecasts from operational models and some from "ensemble" medium range models, all show poor weather and some strong winds through next week but I saw a possible improvement from the 20th or 21st but the models available to me are not good at that range so I just spoke to a forecaster at who do a lot of work on medium range forecasts.

They confirm that there should be better weather from around the 21st but that might not be long enough to let me get to St Kilda (the sea will need several days to calm down), it could also get messed up in the north if the expected high pressure that should give good weather in the south, does not get far enough north, a distinct possibility especially 50 miles west of the Outer Hebrides. Worse the analogue models (these compare current and recent weather with previous years to see what happened then) and others are suggesting weather in June and possibly July is likely to be very changeable and generally not good.

The conclusion is that I will sit it out for another week hopefully with some day sailing, in any case dodging the weather I could probably only get as far as Tobermory in a week if I gave up now,  and review towards the end of next week. If a good enough window does not show to be opening I'll use the somewhat better weather to head for home as and when the weather permits, otherwise I'll not be home early enough to go for an autumn  cruise. For the same reason, if I get to St Kilda I will almost certainly head south rather than try for Shetland.

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